We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.
If there is a particular Drama category that "Succession" kind of sucks the air out of, it's Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series. Though he did lose last year up to Lee Jung-jae, star of global phenomenon "Squid Game," Jeremy Strong is almost a lock to win again as a previous winner being recognized for his final season playing the beloved role. Though many awards prognosticators fall in love with the idea of Emmy voters wanting to spread the wealth, this is a voting body that will give an award to someone more than five years running, so Kieran Culkin's move up to Lead does not do much for his chances of finally receiving an award for playing fan favorite Roman Roy. Brian Cox is also a "Succession" actor due an Emmy, but only half a season of appearances does not win one a Lead Actor award.
Still, those three actors are likely to take up half the nomination slots, leaving room for three other shows at most to be recognized. Representing the sixth and final season of "Better Call Saul," Bob Odenkirk is a mainstay, and would have likely won if "Succession" did not also choose to end during this TV season. Outside of the five-time nominee, everyone else in the Lead Actor in a Drama Series conservation is a newcomer. Both "The Old Man" star Jeff Bridges and "1923" star Harrison Ford represent film icons entering the television space in a major way, but the former has the FX awards machine behind him, which has garnered much more attention from voters than Paramount+.
Pedro Pascal being nominated for the first season of "The Last of Us" seems like a given, as the series cemented the 48-year-old's status as a compelling TV heartthrob. P**** Considine ("House of the Dragon") and Diego Luna ("Andor") similarly gave standout performances on popular genre shows, but a sci-fi and/or fantasy designation often works against actors seeking awards attention.
Predicted Nominees:
Jeff Bridges, "The Old Man" (FX)
Brian Cox, "Succession" (HBO)
Kieran Culkin, "Succession" (HBO)
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul" (AMC)
Pedro Pascal, "The Last of Us" (HBO)
Jeremy Strong, "Succession" (HBO)
Contenders:
P**** Considine, "House of the Dragon" (HBO)
Harrison Ford, "1923" (Paramount+)
Diego Luna, "Andor" (Disney+)
In a Perfect World:
Nicco Annan, "P-Valley" (Starz)
Damson Idris, "Snowfall" (FX)
Patrick Stewart, "Star Trek: Picard" (Paramount+)
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
To see IndieWire's full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.
Last Year's Winner: Lee Jung-jae, "Squid Game"
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Last year continued a streak that has lasted over a decade, where no one has won this award for back-to-back seasons of their series. The last to do so was "Breaking Bad" star Bryan Cranston in 2008-2010. There is a chance for Dominic West to win and start a streak for the same role as Josh O'Connor, who won this Emmy in 2021 for playing a younger Prince Charles on "The Crown." Otherwise, the only person vying for a repeat win is "Succession" star Jeremy Strong, who won in 2020, but did not win last year.
Notable Ineligible Series: Adam Scott, "Severance" (Season 2 was not eligible); Jason Bateman, "Ozark" (ended); Sterling K. Brown, "This is Us" (ended)
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