That line on the chances for a U.S. recession came Thursday from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as she spoke to Bloomberg News on the sidelines of a conference in Paris.
"I'm not going to say it's not a risk, because the Fed is tightening policy," she added, referring to the Federal Reserve's series of interest-rate increases, which is expected to resume later this year after the central bank skipped on hiking rates last week.
Related: Jobs report shows a big 339,000 gain in May. The U.S. economy is still strong.
"We probably need to see some slowdown in spending in order to get inflation" under control, Yellen also said, alluding to consumption.
U.S. stocks looked on track for losses Friday as investors sought safety in bonds and the dollar in the wake of interest rate rises by global central banks to combat inflation.
See: U.S. inflation slows again, CPI shows, and might keep Fed on sidelines