2023 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

IndieWire 23.06.2023 17:54:42 Marcus Jones

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

What was once a heated Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series race between Melanie Lynskey for the premiere season of "Yellowjackets," Laura Linney for the final season of "Ozark," and "Euphoria" star and eventual record-breaking two-time winner Zendaya ("Euphoria") last year has now cooled. Most of the Drama Series contenders are very male-centric, and if they aren't, then they are an ensemble show like "The White Lotus" that submits most of its stars in the Supporting category.

Ultimately, it is safe to peg Lynskey as the frontrunner given how she has more significant award wins than two-time Emmy nominee Sarah Snook, who is now taking the risk of moving from Supporting to Lead for her final Emmys run playing Shiv Roy in "Succession." The continued popularity of "Yellowjackets' should actually mean both Juliette Lewis and Sophie Nélisse make it into the category as well, since their Season 2 arcs are highlights.

However, "The Last of Us" on HBO was even more of a blockbuster success, helping star Bella Ramsey likely quell any hesitations voters often have about recognizing young talent (Zendaya has particularly helped change minds in that regard). The real question mark is what past Outstanding Drama Series winner has more juice to just make the cut here. Each actress that has played Queen Elizabeth II on "The Crown" has won an Emmy, so Imelda Staunton is favored, but "The Handmaid's Tale" star Elisabeth Moss is such an Emmy Awards darling, that she would be hard to count out this race, even with the audience for her Hulu show diminishing.

Predicted Nominees:

Juliette Lewis, "Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

Melanie Lynskey, "Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

Sophie Nélisse, "Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

Bella Ramsey, "The Last of Us" (HBO)

Sarah Snook, "Succession" (HBO)

Imelda Staunton, "The Crown" (Netflix)


Emma D'Arcy, "House of the Dragon" (HBO)

Helen Mirren, "1923" (Paramount+)

Elisabeth Moss, "The Handmaid's Tale" (Hulu)

In a Perfect World:

Christine Baranski, "The Good Fight" (Paramount+)

Tawny Cypress, "Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

Brandee Evans, "P-Valley" (Starz)

More Drama Category Predictions:

Outstanding Drama Series

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire's full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year's Winner: Zendaya, "Euphoria"

Still Eligible: No.

Hot Streak: There are no possible streaks here in the traditional sense. It's been a decade since an actress won this award in back-to-back years, and with "Euphoria" not coming back anytime soon, that will not change this year. That all said, Imelda Staunton does have a shot at becoming the third actress to win the Emmy for playing Queen Elizabeth II on "The Crown." Her predecessors won for their second seasons in the role though, not their first.

Notable Ineligible Series: Britt Lower, "Severance" (Season 2 was not eligible); Zendaya, "Euphoria" (Season 3 was not eligible); Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon, "The Morning Show" (Season 3 was not eligible); Millie Bobby Brown, "Stranger Things" (Season 5 was not eligible); Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh, "Killing Eve" (ended); Laura Linney, "Ozark" (ended); Mandy Moore, "This is Us" (ended)

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vendredi 23 juin 2023 20:54:42 Categories:

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