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Tropical Storm Bret is approaching the Lesser Antilles and Tropical Depression Four has formed farther east in the Central Atlantic.
Here's where Bret is right now: Bret is just over 100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean.
T?he National Hurricane Center began issuing forecast advisories on this system late Monday morning, as it had enough low-level spin and thunderstorms near it to be designated a tropical cyclone.
Bret will continue on its current path: Bret strengthened a bit overnight and is nearing hurricane strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
A?n Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating Bret this morning to confirm its strength.
Bret will continue on its westerly track over the next few days.
It is expected to weaken in the eastern Caribbean Sea where it will encounter increasingly hostile upper-level winds. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Bret to dissipate by early Sunday.
B?ret is a threat to the Lesser Antilles. On its path, Bret will sweep through parts of the Lesser Antilles into early Friday.
The storm will bring strong wind gusts, heavy rain and dangerous waves to the Lesser Antilles.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with up to 10 inches possible are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados, according to the National Hurricane Center. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
A? hurricane watch is in effect for St. Lucia, where hurricane conditions are possible in the next 24 hours if Bret briefly becomes a hurricane.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia. A? tropical storm watch is in effect for Barbados, as well as St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Warnings are issued when the specified condition - tropical storm or hurricane - is expected within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches are typically issued when those conditions are possible within the watch area in the next 48 hours.
B?ret won't threaten the mainland United States given the forecast calls for its dissipation in the Caribbean.
Tropical Depression Four formed Thursday morning in the Central Atlantic. This system is moving westward and is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm in the next day or so. It will be named Cindy when it becomes a tropical storm.
F?or now, it's no immediate threat to land and is expected to turn toward the northwest over the next few days. If it remains on that northwest path, it would track north of the Leeward Islands early next week. But interests in the Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this forecast over the next several days.
Record ocean warmth is providing fuel. One factor that has contributed to the development of Bret and Tropical Depression Four is ocean warmth. A?ll other factors equal, warmer ocean water can provide more fuel for tropical systems to intensify.
O?ver the strip of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is an area known as the "main development region" (MDR), where many intense hurricanes get their start. Ocean temperatures there have smashed mid-June records. Water temperatures near Cabo Verde and points west into the central tropical Atlantic are generally in the low 80s, which is sufficient heating for tropical development.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted these sea-surface temperatures are more typical of the heart of hurricane season - early September - rather than June. Water temperatures in the proximity of this system are 2 to 5 degrees above average.
That's due in part to lighter than usual trade winds from a weaker than average Bermuda-Azores high, according to Brian McNoldy, tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
This is a weird place for storms to develop in June. Only about 6% of all storms form in June.
O?f the June storms that do form, the overwhelming majority form in the Gulf of Mexico or just off the East Coast.
O?nly three of 79 June storms since the 19th century have formed east of the Lesser Antilles, according to NOAA's database.
F?urthermore, there is no record of two storms active at once in June east of the Antilles. So, if we have both Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy, that would be unprecedented for that part of the Atlantic Basin in June.
T?wo of those formed in the past six years. What would later become Hurricane Elsa first became a tropical storm just hours before June ended in 2021. Tropical Storm Bret in 2017 was a short-lived storm that eventually fizzled after soaking Trinidad and Tobago. Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only other such June MDR storm in NOAA's database.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
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