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Tropical Depression Three has formed and could become a threat to the Lesser Antilles, possibly as Hurricane Bret, later this week due to record warm June water in the Atlantic Ocean.
W?here the tropical depression is now: This newly-formed system is about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and western Africa in the Atlantic Ocean.
T?he National Hurricane Center began issuing forecast advisories on this system late Monday morning, as it had enough low-level spin and thunderstorms near it to be designated a tropical cyclone.
W?hat is the forecast: This system will move toward the west-northwest over the next several days. On its path, it could near the Lesser Antilles by late this week or weekend.
I?t is expected to gain strength and become a tropical storm soon, then possibly a hurricane by later this week. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will be named "Bret."
The uncertain threat to the Antilles. There appear to be two scenarios regarding this newly-formed system.
S?cenario #1: The system could move faster and stay on a more west to west-northwest track. If that were to happen, it would arrive in the Lesser Antilles late this week.
S?cenario #2: The system could gain strength more quickly, move more slowly but also curl to the northwest or north, avoiding the Lesser Antilles into the central Atlantic.
N?ot only are there track uncertainties, but also intensity unknowns, especially given the weird nature of this happening east of the Antilles in June.
For now, those in the Lesser Antilles should simply monitor the progress of this system.
W?hat about the second system? The NHC is also monitoring a second system for development, another cluster of showers located farther to the east over the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
T?his second system, now tagged Invest 93L, may also become a tropical depression or perhaps a tropical storm as it continues moving westward. This tagging system is used to track and investigate systems that are likely to develop and to allocate additional resources to the systems, including the Hurricane Hunters and specialized computer models.
F?or now, it's no immediate threat to land.
Record ocean warmth is providing fuel. One favorable factor for development is ocean warmth. A?ll other factors equal, warmer ocean water can provide more fuel for tropical systems to intensify.
O?ver the strip of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is an area known as the "main development region" (MDR), where many intense hurricanes get their start. Ocean temperatures there have smashed mid-June records. Water temperatures near Cabo Verde and points west into the central tropical Atlantic are generally in the low 80s, which is sufficient heating for tropical development.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted these sea-surface temperatures are more typical of the heart of hurricane season - early September - rather than June. Water temperatures in the proximity of this system are 2 to 5 degrees above average.
That's due in part to lighter than usual trade winds from a weaker than average Bermuda-Azores high, according to Brian McNoldy, tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
There's a more favorable development environment than usual for this time of year. Forecast models suggest wind shear, which usually rips apart tropical systems, may be substantially lower than usual for this time of year over the next few days. We do expect each system to face increased wind shear closer to the Antilles, which could cause each to weaken at some point.
A?lso, while satellite imagery indicates some patches of dry air east of the Lesser Antilles, some computer forecast models suggest these systems may be able to stay in a pocket of more humid air for at least some time during their trip westward. Dry air typically inhibits tropical development.
This would be a weird place for storms to develop in June. Only about 6% of all storms form in June because of all of the hostile factors we discussed earlier.
O?f the June storms that do form, the overwhelming majority form in the Gulf of Mexico or just off the East Coast.
O?nly three of 79 June storms since the 19th century have formed east of the Lesser Antilles, according to NOAA's database.
F?urthermore, there is no record of two storms active at once in June east of the Antilles. So, if we have both Tropical Storm Bret and Tropical Storm Cindy, that would be unprecedented for that part of the Atlantic Basin in June.
T?wo of those formed in the past six years. What would later become Hurricane Elsa first became a tropical storm just hours before June ended in 2021. Tropical Storm Bret in 2017 was a short-lived storm that eventually fizzled after soaking Trinidad and Tobago. Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only other such June MDR storm in NOAA's database.
A?s luck would have it, if this current disturbance does become a storm, it would be named Bret, since the hurricane name list repeats every six years unless a storm is so destructive or deadly to be retired from use.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
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