© Provided by RotoBallerAt RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we proudly announce our new 'Model Kombat' article, a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque.
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First time playing the course.
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
Round 1...Fight
Seung-yul Noh ($6,800)
Spencer - I'd prefer to avoid this $6,000 range when possible, but I do believe Seung-yul Noh has one of the steadier output totals when we dive into his four consecutive made cuts. The value is there if my 'Expected Realization Of Opportunities' metric holds firm and does produce as a top 20 golfer in this field, and I am fine taking some chances on a golfer that is going to be one percent owned.
Byron - Seung-yul Noh is getting dinged for his SG easy scoring, recent form and weighted strokes gained, which all rank 105th or worse. I would imagine Spencer's model is going to be a fan of his putting and birdie or better % which fall inside the top-33, probably giving him a bit more upside than my model is letting the $6k golfer experience.
Aaron Cockerill ($7,000)
Spencer - I am surprised that Aaron Cockerill is pushing 5-6% ownership. It shows how much more advanced DFS golf is than we had it five years ago. The limited sample size within my model does form this hodgepodge expectation. However, something must be said about a golfer playing on the world's second-biggest stage (ahead of LIV...) and generating five top-21 finishes in a row. The price feels too cheap for a golfer with good made-cut equity.
Byron - Aaron Cocker-who? I think the biggest issue with Aaron is the fact that I have not manually added any stats to his non-existent PGA tour profile. He does have the 24th best SG Total entering the week, which include 5 consecutive top-21 finishes on the DPWT before taking his first crack at a PGA Tour event this year. We are in wait and see mode with Aaron.
C.T. Pan ($7,100)
Spencer - I like Carson Young, Mark Hubbard and Vincent Norrman, but C.T. Pan is one of the savvier pivots you can find on the board if you are trying to open up a reduction of ownership. Pan's lack of recent data was likely why Byron didn't want to jump back in on a volatile golfer, but I will bet on the top 35 weighted expectation for him that shows Oakdale might be an ideal fit.
Byron - C.T. Pan sits outside the top 100 in good shot % and is also lacking a big enough sample size of data for 2023 having only played in 3 events this year so far. If we are using some of last year's data to get Pan some measurables, his ranking jumps about 30 spots for me, but I am once again, in a wait and see situation with Pan.
Ludvig Aberg ($8,300)
Spencer - It may not happen this week, but I think Ludvig Aberg will become this year's version of Tom Kim. That may be more of a fall-season answer when these courses and fields become weaker, but if you haven't considered adding Aberg to season-long fantasy teams, I would get on that ASAP. The talent is REAL!
Byron - I am certain Spencer will have something to say about his lack of sample size, which, once again, is something my model is not a fan of. More info = more confidence and with Aberg having only played 2 events on tour, we are going to need to see more from the talented youngster before we start believing in the impressive, yet small, sample he has provided us with so far.
Adrian Meronk ($8,600)
Spencer -I have decided to take my brand globally, which includes more discussions of these European golfers that could very easily be week-in and week-out names on the PGA Tour if we saw them tee it up more frequently. Meronk's 18th-place rating in my model does worry me marginally since he is projected to be 14% owned as the 14th name in price, but the public intrigue does feel warranted.
Byron - Spencer must be planning a trip to Europe as this yet another non-American to find his way into the Model Kombat article. Meronk has been playing stellar golf across the globe, but so far in his 5 PGA starts he only has one top 40 finish which was the Honda Classic back in February. He has yet to really find his footing on US soil despite having won twice on the DPWT in the last 6 months.
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Round 2...Fight
James Hahn ($6,800)
Byron - James Hahn is surprisingly 5th in the field when it comes to weighted good %, giving him a lot of upside at a course that may require a decent amount of birdie looks. He grades out well off the tee (25th) and has solid accuracy (18th), making his ball striking really appealing. Now, as many good shots as he hits, he also hits a lot of bad ones (102nd) which impacts his safety if he does not get off to a solid start with his irons. Short game play is a major issue, but at $6,800 we are banking on Hahns irons to stay dialed and make the cut for us.
Spencer - A seventh-place grade for me in weighted total driving shows the good that Byron likely found inside his model when it ushered James Hahn as a value. I understand the upside intrigue when he does pop, but there is way too much risk in the data in almost every other area for me to feel comfortable. The 129th-place grade I have for him in weighted proximity plummeted him down my board rather quickly.
Brandon Wu ($7,500)
Byron - Brandon Wu is an interesting golfer, as he has struggled mightily in elevated events and impressed in the other tournaments. The math seems to check out as he has averaged the 15th most strokes on easy courses this year (elevated events are typically not easy courses) and also ranks 14th in BoB%. Wu is also accurate off the tee and has the 10th-best good shot % when adjusting weightings to match up to this course. At $7,500 in a non-elevated event, we are going to be leaning on Wu to hopefully produce another top-20 with the potential of a top-5 definitely there as he finished T2 at Pebble and 3rd in Mexico.
Spencer - I'm definitely lower on Brandon Wu than Byron, but I can see some positives in my model. An overall grade of 44th is fine from a statistical standpoint. Still, I continue to prefer other popular names over him if I am going to eat ownership.
Nick Taylor ($8,100)
Byron - At $8,100 we are getting the 6th best golfer on easy courses, the 8th best birdie maker who is now playing in his home country of Canada. Taylor also has top-20 ranks for approach play (both SG and good shot %), total short game and recent form. If we can get the driver back on track this week, Taylor should be able to lean on most of the other areas of his game to get the job done. Not a lot about his game is excellent, but he also doesn't really have a weakness, which makes him a comfortable play at this price point.
Spencer - I'd keep Nick Taylor out of cash-game lineups because of his consistency, but the ceiling is massive for him to end the drought of no Canadian winning this title since Pat Fletcher in 1954. If you want to use Taylor as an outright, first-round leader bet or GPP option, I will not be the one to talk you out of that route. You have to know what you are signing up for with his volatility, but I do tend to agree with Byron's model that he pops in a massive way if all the pieces end up coming together.
Scott Piercy ($7,100)
Byron - Scott Piercy is the 12th best player when we are looking for good shot %, which seems to correlate with birdie or better % as he also sits inside the top-20 in that stat. He is $7,100 and has made three of his last four cuts, missing the weekend at the Wells Fargo despite gaining strokes on the field (tough times). He seems to drive the ball better on shorter courses, jumping from a baseline of 128th to 69th OTT on courses less than 7,200 yards. Piercy appears to be trending in the right direction and is very affordably priced.
Spencer - It is a fair price and a good ownership amount. My model can get him up to 35th when running a safer build, so there are no complaints from me if anyone wants to consider the now Vegas native... Even if the weighted scoring did leave something to be desired.
Sahith Theegala ($9,200)
Byron - The only golfer in the field (min 5 starts) without a missed cut in 2023 is Sahith Theegala. He has gained the 2nd-most birdies or better in this field and has the best good shot % from 100-150 on tour (15%). When his ball is in the fairway he will have a lot of great chances to make birdie and although his driver is horrifically inaccurate, he has enough length off the tee to hit that driving iron into wedge range on this 7,200 yard course. This will be Theegala's first stroke-play, non-elevated event since the Farmers Insurance Open in January, where he finished T4. He is a world class player who has finished inside the top-20 in 5 of his 11 starts this year, with the majority of those starts being in elevated events and majors. I have him as an outright to win this week and it all hinges on his OTT ability.
Spencer -To me, this number has pushed too far up the board for a golfer that, sure, is consistently making cuts but can be boom-or-bust in his output. I am willing to fade some of that because of the unknown entities we do have at Oakdale, and I will force him to beat me as the 10th-priced option on the slate. Anything that doesn't land in that territory feels like a negative-EV play when we look at his moderate-to-high ownership.
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