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Latest updates: Government seeking judicial review arguing it should have right to hold back 'unambiguously irrelevant' material.
The UK economy will continue to lag behind other countries in the G7 group of advanced economies this year, despite improved growth projections, new analysis has shown. As PA Media reports, only Germany, which fell into a recession over the start of the year and is set to stagnate throughout 2023, will perform worse than the UK. PA says:
Analysis from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast that the UK's economy will just about eke out growth this year. It expects GDP to edge up by 0.3% before improving moderately to 1% growth in 2024. It compares with the OECD's previous forecast in March of a 0.2% decline in GDP this year followed by a rise of 0.9% next year. All other economies in the G7 apart from Germany - the US, Canada, France, Italy and Japan - are expected to grow at faster rates this year, showing Britain is lagging behind on the international stage. It is also a significantly slower rate when compared with the group of 20 (G20) advanced economies as a whole, which is predicted to see GDP growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% next year. The best performer among the G7 is set to be the US, with its economy forecast to grow by 1.6% this year before easing to 1% in 2024. "The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth," the OECD chief economist, Clare Lombardelli, said. The UK economy will be "propped up" by government investment and spending, including on energy bills support measures, the OECD said. And as energy prices come down, inflation will ease and global economic conditions will improve. "However, weak household income growth will weigh on consumption despite the fall in inflation, monetary tightening will slow both housing and already sluggish business investment, and uncertainty will continue to reduce the contribution of trade to growth," the OECD said in its report. Core inflation - which does not account for food and energy prices - is set to be more persistent, only receding to 3.2% in 2024, the projections show. And unemployment will rise, reaching 4.5% next year.
Analysis from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast that the UK's economy will just about eke out growth this year.
It expects GDP to edge up by 0.3% before improving moderately to 1% growth in 2024.
It compares with the OECD's previous forecast in March of a 0.2% decline in GDP this year followed by a rise of 0.9% next year.
All other economies in the G7 apart from Germany - the US, Canada, France, Italy and Japan - are expected to grow at faster rates this year, showing Britain is lagging behind on the international stage.
It is also a significantly slower rate when compared with the group of 20 (G20) advanced economies as a whole, which is predicted to see GDP growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% next year.
The best performer among the G7 is set to be the US, with its economy forecast to grow by 1.6% this year before easing to 1% in 2024.
"The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth," the OECD chief economist, Clare Lombardelli, said.
The UK economy will be "propped up" by government investment and spending, including on energy bills support measures, the OECD said.
And as energy prices come down, inflation will ease and global economic conditions will improve.
"However, weak household income growth will weigh on consumption despite the fall in inflation, monetary tightening will slow both housing and already sluggish business investment, and uncertainty will continue to reduce the contribution of trade to growth," the OECD said in its report.
Core inflation - which does not account for food and energy prices - is set to be more persistent, only receding to 3.2% in 2024, the projections show. And unemployment will rise, reaching 4.5% next year.
As Ed Conway, Sky's economics editor points, out, the OECD also says inflation in the UK will be higher this year than in any other G20 economy - although, in global terms, the UK is roughly in the middle in inflation terms, he points out.
The full OECD report is here.
Lawyers representing Covid bereaved families in Scotland have called for all of the former first minister Nicola Sturgeon's WhatsApp and other messages to be released to the UK Covid inquiry.
Counsel acting for Scottish ministers had previously said that Sturgeon did not have any relevant informal correspondence but the families' lead solicitor, Aamer Anwar, said it should be for the inquiry to judge what was relevant to the handling of the pandemic.
This comes as the row between the inquiry and the Westminster government over access to WhatsApp messages deepens.
This morning it was also revealed that Scotland's national Covid memorial has been defaced with anti-vaccination graffiti. The words "masking and vaxxing kids" were daubed on the oak artwork in Pollock Park, Glasgow, while an information board was completely destroyed.
Steve Barclay, the health secretary, also had trouble with Kay Burley this morning when the Sky News presenter tried to get him to justify the government's decision to take the Covid inquiry to court. HuffPost has the full story here.
Good morning. He had a terrible day in court yesterday. Not Prince Harry (or not just Prince Harry) - from the government's point of view, it was Nicholas Chapman's performance that should be a lot more worrying. Chapman was representing the Cabinet Office in the Covid inquiry (not quite a court - but very similar, and as good as), and he was unable to defend the government's position in terms of releasing documents to the inquiry - because it's all a muddle. Asked to explain the Cabinet Office's position on redacting documents from Boris Johnson that Johnson says should go to the inquiry unredacted, he replied: "The position is that the Cabinet Office is working out its position."
Officially, the government is still going to court because it does not accept the demand from the inquiry that it should submit all WhatsApp messages from Johnson and others to the inquiry so that the inquiry itself can work out what is relevant. It is seeking judicial review, arguing that it should have the right to hold back "unambiguously irrelevant" material. Heather Hallett, the inquiry chair, says that it should be up to her to decide what is irrelevant, and that of course irrelevant material won't be disclosed.
Steve Barclay, the health secretary, was doing interviews on behalf of the government this morning. He was there to talk about extending the availability of weight loss drugs, but he was asked about the Covid inquiry, and he failed to give a full defence of the government's decision to take the inquiry to court.
In an interview on the Today programme, asked by Nick Robinson why the government would not just trust Hallett to decide what was and was not relevant, Barclay implied this was just about "clarification". He said:
My understanding this is some clarification that is being sought. Obviously, the use of WhatsApp and the way modern communication was used [during the pandemic] was a new area, to some extent, in terms of government, and the way government business was conducted. And the Cabinet Office wants to clarify some points around that.
Asked what needed to be clarified, he replied:
I think there's some small, technical questions that are being clarified by the Cabinet Office.
And when Robinson tried again, asking what were the reasons for going to court, Barclay replied:
It's a long, long time since I practised as a lawyer. I don't want to stray into legal questions that a better placed for others to explore.
Robinson also pointed out that the Department of Health and Social Care was praised by the Covid inquiry yesterday for being much more forthcoming than the Cabinet Office in releasing documents. Asked if he would advise his Cabinet Office colleagues to follow his lead, and just hand over the material, Barclay laughed, and just muttered something about decisions being "taken on their merits".
The Cabinet Office is run by Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister. He is taking PMQs later today, because Rishi Sunak is in Washington, and so we will probably get to hear more about this then.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Best for Britain, the internationalist campaign group, releases the results what it says is the first major nationwide MRP poll based on the new constituency boundaries that will be in place at the next election.
Noon: Oliver Dowden, the deputy PM, faces Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, at PMQs.
After 12.30pm: MPs begin a debate on a Labour motion criticising the government's record on mental health. Later, at around 4pm, they will debate a Labour "humble address" motion saying the government should publish its correspondence relating to the decision to set up a review of the funding of the Teesworks project in the Teesside freeport area.
Afternoon (UK time): Rishi Sunak begins the first day of his trip to Washington. He is visiting Arlington National Cemetery, holding talks with political figures on Capitol Hill and giving interviews to broadcasters.
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