Putin's Political Opposition Emboldened by His Recent Failures: Intelligence

U.S. News & World Report 01.06.2023 20:32:36 Paul D. Shinkman
Russian President Vladimir Putin answers a question on a drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

President Vladimir Putin's few remaining domestic political opponents have become more vocal in their criticism of the Russian leader in recent days as the Kremlin's forces in Ukraine face dismal battlefield conditions and new concerns surge following an escalation in drone strikes in Moscow.

Noted opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin openly criticized Putin in remarks on a panel last weekend on Russia's NTV, one of three main state-controlled television channels. He slammed the war, as he has in the past, saying Putin has cornered Russia into a geopolitical quagmire in which "there is no way for us to come back to Europe." He concluded, "We simply have to choose different authorities to govern the country that would stop this story with Ukraine."

Ultimately Russia should hold elections next year and replace Putin, Nadezhdin said.

The comments brush up against - if not explicitly violate - strict gag laws Putin's government has put into place prohibiting any kind of criticism against the war in Ukraine, known officially as a "special military operation." And they portend broader problems facing the Russian leader 15 months into an invasion of Ukraine that he thought would end in days.

"This is highly likely the first call for Putin to be replaced on Russian state-approved TV since it began," British military intelligence concludes in a new assessment released Thursday.

It notes the new restrictions on public criticism are unparalleled in Russia since Soviet times but that, likewise, new challenges to these rules are also growing.

"There is a realistic possibility that recent vitriolic rhetoric by nationalist figures such as Wanger Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is emboldening opposition figures to challenge taboo topics," according to the assessment.

Prigozhin has, in fact, gained global attention for his scathing and highly unusual critiques of Russia's uniformed military leaders. In profanity-laced tirades on social media and video posts, the financier has broken from historic norms governing Russia's military officials and blasted those at the top of Russia's Ministry of Defense for what he considered cowardice and gross negligence - particularly in denying his paramilitary forces the weapons and equipment he said they need to achieve the capture of the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's east, one of the Kremlin's few battlefield victories.

Around the time of Russia's May 9 celebrations of Victory Day - the most significant secular holiday - Prigozhin turned his ire on Putin himself and has increasingly called out the Russian leader in weeks since. His condemnation culminated in speculation that he is in fact planning a coup to topple the Kremlin leadership - rumors he later denied with the tepid rationale that his paramilitary force is not large enough to carry out the task. He also added that he remains on good terms with Putin.

The challenge now from Nadezhdin similarly represents an escalation in challenges to Putin's rule. The former liberal member of Russia's parliament wrought similar attention in September, at a time when Ukrainian forces were making stunning advances against the Russian invaders, when he said Putin had been misled by Russia's security and intelligence services. He also called for an end to the fighting and for Russia to push negotiations with Kyiv.

Nadezhdin said at the time he did not fear retribution for apparently violating the laws against discrediting Russia's military.

Despite the new potential threats to Putin's rule - the longest in Russia since Joseph Stalin - the Russian leader appears to maintain public support. A new poll released Wednesday by the independent Levada Center indicates Russians do not appear to blame Putin for travails in the war, though other indicators suggest they are growing tired of the number of casualties coming home from the front.

And respondents continued to cite Putin voluntarily when asked which domestic leaders they trust most.

Notably, however, Prigozhin for the first time was also included on the top 1o list of most trusted Russian leaders.

Copyright 2023 U.S. News & World Report

jeudi 1 juin 2023 23:32:36 Categories:

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