The NBA Finals are upon us, and we are guaranteed history no matter who wins.
Either the Denver Nuggets (the favorite) will capture their first title in franchise history, or the Miami Heat will become the first No. 8 seed to win an NBA Finals.
That's some pretty special stuff, and it should make for a great series with stars like Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokic leading the way.
Our NBA betting experts weighed in with their picks for who will win this series and in exactly how many games:
The Nuggets' playoff run has been equally if not more impressive than Miami's as the team has showcased dominance against quality opponents such as the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.
Among playoff teams this season, Denver ranks:
The Nuggets have the shooting to compete with Miami's role players that have played extremely well to this point, mainly forward Caleb Martin. Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all shooting above 35.0 percent from beyond the arc this postseason.
That's not even mentioning Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who have hit some clutch shots despite shooting lower percentages.
The Heat obviously have star power of their own in Jimmy Butler, but he's cooled off a bit after a dominant series against the Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is going to need Gabe Vincent, Martin, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry to shoot the ball at a high level to compete with this Denver team, and even that may not be enough.
Jokic has been the most dominant player in the playoffs, and he's thrived against Heat big man Bam Adebayo in recent seasons.
The Lakers couldn't contain Jokic with an elite defender in Anthony Davis, and now Adebayo is giving up several inches of height to the two-time MVP. I don't doubt that Erik Spoelstra will make adjustments, but the zone that has been effective for Miami may not be against Denver since it has so much shooting.
Ultimately, Miami's struggles in the Eastern Conference Finals showed me that they are beatable. Denver's home dominance (8-0 in the playoffs) should lead it to a series win.
The Heat deserve to be here with an incredible postseason run, but this is going to be a coronation for the Nuggets, who have been regrouping after a four game sweep of the Lakers. Denver has home court this series, in a place where it hasn't lost all postseason, and the distinct best player in the series (and possibly the league) in Nikola Jokic.
Miami will be running on fumes with a quick turnaround to face Denver on two days of rest and also struggled in this particular matchup in the regular season, losing both games to Denver and the last six games overall dating back to 2021.
The Heat ran hot from 3 to run through the Eastern Conference, but the Nuggets have proved that they are capable of matching anyone on offense while getting timely stops. Denver is third in effective field goal percentage this postseason while the Heat are fifth. Even with Miami flying so high on offense and getting such timely buckets from the likes of Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent, it's still behind the Nuggets.
I love the matchup for Jokic against Bam Adebayo, who averaged a triple double on nearly 70% shooting, and think Denver's depth is going to outlast Miami's. It's pricey, but Denver -1.5 at (-164) is a worthwhile look, unless you want to get more direct and back Denver to win 4-1 at (+210).
I don't see the Heat keeping up and the Nuggets run away with this one.
This postseason has felt like the crowning of King Nikola Jokic, who has feasted on defenders like a jolly giant playing with his food. Bam Adebayo is a fantastic defender, but his size leaves him woefully overmatched against a player like Jokic and there's no one on the Heat roster that can slow him down.
Barring injury, I expect Denver to waltz to the title. It's hard to bet against Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler, but Jokic is just four wins away from completing one of the most impressive individual playoffs we've ever seen.
I think he gets the job done, and the flamethrowing Jamal Murray will spell Jokic if the two-time MVP struggles at any point. Denver has won AND covered the spread in six straight matchups against Miami. The Heat accomplished something incredible to make it this far, but the feel-good story ends here.
It's Jokic's turn to wear the crown - he'll become the second player in NBA history (behind LeBron James) to average a triple-double in the Finals. This time though, the man averaging the triple-double will raise a championship trophy by the end of it.
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