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Activity in housing market has 'stabilised', Treasury secretary says
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy said that there are signs that activity in the established housing market - buying and selling of houses and apartments - has "stabilised".
He said:
But housing construction has not yet worked through its cyclical downturn. There are still a large number of dwellings under construction. Almost 240,000 in the December quarter, which is currently supporting activity. However, approvals for new buildings have fallen significantly over recent months. After the current pipeline of work is completed, the downturn in approvals will mean fewer housing starts. This will naturally flow through to construction work done. And we expect dwelling investment to contract 2.5% this year."
Victorian Greens demand two-year rent freeze in exchange for supporting tax reform bills
The Victorian Greens leader, Samantha Ratnam, is demanding a two-year rent freeze in exchange for supporting the government's new taxes.
She told reporters:
The Greens are really concerned that there aren't enough safeguards for renters within its tax reform package. That's why the Greens want safeguards as part of ensuring confidence to support the government's tax reform bills and the best way the government can provide a safe guide for renters is implementing a rent freeze now, we've had polling just overnight, revealing that the majority of Australians support stronger safeguards for vendors, including a rent freeze. It's very likely the government is going to need the support of the Greens in order to guarantee passage of its tax reform bills. We want the government to sit down with the Greens and implemented stronger safeguards.
Ratnam, however, would not say if it would block the legislation if its demands aren't met. (Which is likely given the treasurer ruled out a rent freeze last week.)
At the Defence estimates committee hearing, the secretary of the Department of Defence, Greg Moriarty, mentions the recent dialogue with China's People's Liberation Army. He makes clear this doesn't change Australia's activities in the South China Sea:
Defence is supporting the government's efforts to stabilise relations with China. In March defence hosted the People's Liberation Army in Russell [the Canberra suburb where Defence is based] for the first Defence dialogue since 2019. These talks were an opportunity to exchange views on regional security issues _ and for us to underline our national interests directly to the PLA. Meanwhile, ADF vessels and aircraft have continued to exercise Australia's rights under international law to freedom of navigation and overflight, including in the South China Sea, and in support of UNSC [United Nations Security Council] resolutions on North Korea's illegal nuclear weapons program.
Defence is supporting the government's efforts to stabilise relations with China. In March defence hosted the People's Liberation Army in Russell [the Canberra suburb where Defence is based] for the first Defence dialogue since 2019.
These talks were an opportunity to exchange views on regional security issues _ and for us to underline our national interests directly to the PLA.
Meanwhile, ADF vessels and aircraft have continued to exercise Australia's rights under international law to freedom of navigation and overflight, including in the South China Sea, and in support of UNSC [United Nations Security Council] resolutions on North Korea's illegal nuclear weapons program.
The secretary of the Department of Defence, Greg Moriarty, is up at Senate estimates and has given a rundown of the action to implement the defence strategic review. He says that work is happening against the backdrop of an "increasingly challenging set of strategic circumstances". He mentions Russia's war in Ukraine and alludes to China's military buildup in his opening summary:
War has returned to Europe as Russia persists in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, and we face the largest military build-up ever seen in the Indo-Pacific. The increasing risks of climate change, proliferation and pandemics require greater, not less global cooperation. This tougher strategic environment is driving the sense of urgency with which Defence is now implementing government direction in response to the review. In the month since the government's announcement, we have taken action against the six priority areas the government has identified.
War has returned to Europe as Russia persists in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, and we face the largest military build-up ever seen in the Indo-Pacific. The increasing risks of climate change, proliferation and pandemics require greater, not less global cooperation. This tougher strategic environment is driving the sense of urgency with which Defence is now implementing government direction in response to the review.
In the month since the government's announcement, we have taken action against the six priority areas the government has identified.
Moriarty says these steps include work to advance the nuclear-powered submarines. As previously announced, 1 July will see the establishment of a submarine agency to oversee nuclear-powered submarine program.
He also says Defence is looking at streamlining its acquisition processes:
We have begun work to remove unnecessary barriers to acquisitions.
Interest rates likely to 'remain elevated for a time', Treasury secretary says
The Treasury secretary, Steven Kennedy, is giving an opening statement at Senate estimates, discussing the 3.6% growth of the Australian economy in 2022 due to post-pandemic spending.
But Kennedy said this has put "strains on economies around the world", with "wild swings in demand" for products, and inflation in energy prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This was followed by high inflation, sharply rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions, he said. These put a strain on households and caused businesses to delay or scale back investment.
Kennedy said:
The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Overall, we are expecting the pace of global growth in 2023 and 2024 to be the weakest in two decades outside the GFC and the Covid-19 pandemic."
Kennedy said the economy likely reached its peak in the September quarter and is now "transitioning to a more balanced position between supply and demand". Interest rates will likely "remain elevated for a time" and inflation is not likely to return to the RBA's 2-3% target band quickly.
If you haven't read this from Jonathan Barrett yet, take a look. I don't think it will come as a surprise, but . sigh.
Australia's big banks have loaned more than $13bn for fossil fuel projects over the past two years even as they publicly advocate for emissions reductions, a new report suggests. Analysis by environmental activist group Market Forces has found that while Australia's major banks largely avoid providing direct project finance to new coal, oil and gas projects, they do fund corporate entities that develop them. Market Forces said the financing arrangements represented a loophole that enabled lenders to bankroll fossil fuel production while claiming not to directly support new projects.
Australia's big banks have loaned more than $13bn for fossil fuel projects over the past two years even as they publicly advocate for emissions reductions, a new report suggests.
Analysis by environmental activist group Market Forces has found that while Australia's major banks largely avoid providing direct project finance to new coal, oil and gas projects, they do fund corporate entities that develop them.
Market Forces said the financing arrangements represented a loophole that enabled lenders to bankroll fossil fuel production while claiming not to directly support new projects.
Related: Australian banks lending billions to fossil fuel projects despite supporting emissions reductions, analysis suggests
Labor senator describes PwC tax leak scandal as a 'train wreck'
Labor senator Deborah O'Neill is next up on ABC radio RN Breakfast and she is talking the PwC matter as well - and she is not happy.
In January it emerged that a former PwC tax advisor was found to have shared confidential government briefings on multinational tax consultations with clients
Since then it has emerged more people were involved, and the matter has been referred to the Australian federal police.
The firm put partners on leave yesterday, but have not named them. O'Neill says the response has not been good enough.
Related: PwC failing to name all 53 partners in tax leak scandal would amount to 'coverup', Labor senator says
I think what we've seen is a train wreck and yesterday, a couple more carriages fell off. This is about a cover-up. This is about PwC trying to stem the flow of an artery that's well and truly open now, the reality is that this is a company that has not been open and honest with the Australian people.
I think what we've seen is a train wreck and yesterday, a couple more carriages fell off.
This is about a cover-up. This is about PwC trying to stem the flow of an artery that's well and truly open now, the reality is that this is a company that has not been open and honest with the Australian people.
The matter was referred to the AFP last week.
Treasury will be questioned about the matter in estimates in hearings today.
PwC Australia's acting chief executive, Kristin Stubbins released a statement yesterday:
Specifically, I apologise to the community; to the Australian government for breaching your confidentiality; to our clients for any questions this may have raised about our integrity and trustworthiness and to the 10,000 hard-working, values-driven PwC Australia partners and staff who have been unfairly impacted."
Stubbins acknowledged the firm "did not have adequate processes and governance in place", and had a culture in its tax business that "both allowed inappropriate behaviour and has not, until now, always properly held our leaders and those involved to account".
PwC announced that nine partners will go on leave "effective immediately".
The firm said it was moving to ring-fence its government work "to minimise conflicts of interest and enhance governance". That will include a standalone executive and governance board to cover all services to federal government departments and agencies.
'People need to know': O'Neill calls on PwC to name staff put on leave
One of the reasons Deborah O'Neill believes PwC needs to make all the names public is because of the possibility some may have moved on to other firms and organisations and for transparency sake, "people need to know" where they are:
They may no longer be at PwC they may have moved on and you know who knows they could have created their own businesses. They could be now on the international board of auditing standards. They could be at Deloitte in London. I trust the people who are interacting with all those who are named the 53 in the emails to find out about whether that person is suitably engaged currently, people need to know these assurance companies are critical to the proper functioning of the market of the financial markets, not just in Australia, but globally. They are in positions to influence what people know and discern about the truth or otherwise of documents that relate to company outcomes. You cannot be an assurance company that deals in truth and containment of information to make sure the market knows that it's accurate.
They may no longer be at PwC they may have moved on and you know who knows they could have created their own businesses.
They could be now on the international board of auditing standards. They could be at Deloitte in London. I trust the people who are interacting with all those who are named the 53 in the emails to find out about whether that person is suitably engaged currently, people need to know these assurance companies are critical to the proper functioning of the market of the financial markets, not just in Australia, but globally.
They are in positions to influence what people know and discern about the truth or otherwise of documents that relate to company outcomes. You cannot be an assurance company that deals in truth and containment of information to make sure the market knows that it's accurate.
Daniel Andrews responds to Mark McGowan's surprise resignation
Daniel Andrews has also spoken about the shock resignation of WA premier, Mark McGowan. He says he was caught by surprise:
Mark McGowan, he's a very good friend of mine, and I wish him the very best and it's a rare thing in politics to be able to go on your own terms. And that's exactly what Mark McGowan has done. And I think he can be very, very proud of the work that he's done over a very long term. Very, very proud of the work he's done over a very long period of time, almost 30 years in public life.
Asked if he's also exhausted, given he's been Labor leader for longer than McGowan and also seen his state through the pandemic, Andrews replied:
I'm all good. And there's a lot to get on with . These jobs are an amazing privilege. And there are no easy days in this job. That's not a complaint. That's just a fact. And so it makes them so special. Because the work that you do impacts people in every corner of our state and if you've got a bit of ambition, then you can influence things well beyond your state. You can actually drive national reform. I think Mark's done his fair share of that. You'd like to think that Victoria has played a part in that also.
State MPs and senior public sector executives in New South Wales will have their pay frozen for two years, if legislation introduced to the parliament today succeeds.
The NSW cabinet last night approved the bills that would see the government deliver on its election promise to pause growth for the state's most highly paid public sector workers.
The premier, Chris Minns, said:
We have inherited a challenging budget, but budgets are about priorities. Our priority is rebuilding our essential services and investing in frontline workers.
The government is facing increasing pressure from unions to abolish the frontline worker pay freeze, with unions so far declining the state's offers amid ongoing industrial action.
Daniel Andrews says he's received 'important assurances' from PwC
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, has been speaking to reporters outside parliament this morning.
Asked whether the government is investigating any of its contracts with PwC, he said:
The secretary of my department has spoken with very senior people at PwC and sought assurances about their conduct both in the past and indeed any work that they're doing at the moment. We've received those those important assurances. And what's more, I've asked the very direct question of my secretary, 'Is it safe for us to wait until the federal government does whatever they're going to do in relation to PwC?' They've got a number of different processes ongoing at the moment. The advice to me is yes, we can wait and see what comes out of the federal government's work. And then once they make decisions either how far away that will be but if and when they make decisions about the future PwC and its work for the government. Then we'll obviously look at that very carefully.
The secretary of my department has spoken with very senior people at PwC and sought assurances about their conduct both in the past and indeed any work that they're doing at the moment.
We've received those those important assurances. And what's more, I've asked the very direct question of my secretary, 'Is it safe for us to wait until the federal government does whatever they're going to do in relation to PwC?' They've got a number of different processes ongoing at the moment. The advice to me is yes, we can wait and see what comes out of the federal government's work. And then once they make decisions either how far away that will be but if and when they make decisions about the future PwC and its work for the government. Then we'll obviously look at that very carefully.
Parliament resumes after a public holiday in Canberra
It was a public holiday in Canberra yesterday, which is why there was no parliament sitting or estimates (hearings will continue on Friday to make up the lost day).
It being Tuesday means it is party room meeting day, so the house sitting won't actually get under way until midday.
We will bring you all the details of those meetings as soon as they break - expect a lot of voice chat this morning.
The highest number of women in recorded history are in full-time work in Australia
The employment minister, Tony Burke, and minister for women, Katy Gallagher, have released new statistics about employment, and particularly the participation of women.
Some highlights:
Between May 2022 and April 2023, total net jobs have increased by 332,900.
85% of total jobs growth over the last 11 months (from May 2022 to April 2023) have been full-time jobs.
163,900 more women have joined the labour force since May 2022. Women's labour force participation hit a record high in June 2022 and March 2023.
The highest number of women in recorded history are in full-time work. Female full-time employment currently stands at 3,826,900.
Burke said:
We're not just getting women into jobs - we're getting them into secure, full-time jobs. This is what happens when you have a government that is determined to improve job security and get wages moving - it encourages more people to join or come back to the workforce.
Gallagher said:
This is a government that puts women at the heart of our decision-making, which is why in our first year in office we've delivered the biggest investment in women in the last 40 years. Supporting women to work in decent jobs is the key to women's economic equality - and women's equality isn't just a nice to have, it's an economic and social imperative.
O'Neill decries 'contemptuous' response from PwC
Labor senator Deborah O'Neill said the response from Price Waterhouse Cooper has done nothing to restore trust.
She told the ABC:
Would you trust them? Do you think your listeners would trust them? Do you think that I trust them at this point of time? And after what we saw yesterday, how can we possibly trust them? This is this is the equivalent of PwC in Australia just wagging their finger at the nation saying, 'Don't you worry about that. We've sent nine people home to have an extended holiday that's going to sort the problem out. Do you want the 53 names? Sorry, we're not going to give it to you.' That is the response we've had from PwC. It's contemptuous.
Would you trust them? Do you think your listeners would trust them? Do you think that I trust them at this point of time?
And after what we saw yesterday, how can we possibly trust them? This is this is the equivalent of PwC in Australia just wagging their finger at the nation saying, 'Don't you worry about that. We've sent nine people home to have an extended holiday that's going to sort the problem out. Do you want the 53 names? Sorry, we're not going to give it to you.'
That is the response we've had from PwC.
It's contemptuous.
O'Neill said it surprised her that PwC put people on leave and have not named them.
The reason that I'm continuing to push for PwC to put the names on the record themselves, is they made this mess, they unleashed this kind of behaviour.
Parliament has a responsibility to address institutional racism, Bandt says
Adam Bandt is then asked "is there racism in your party?" and says:
No. Well, the Greens are an anti-racist party. The Greens take steps to fight racism wherever it occurs. Now, what Senator Thorpe was referring to, is highlighting the practice of institutional racism, something that we've seen, for example, Stan Grant draw attention to over the period of time. What what is clear, I think and what we learned from the First Nations MPs in our party including Senator Thorpe, when she was in the party, is that First Nations MPs, MPs of colour, face discrimination and barriers that other MPs don't and that is something that we all have a job across parties across the parliament to learn how to do better. And since I've been leader, we've taken steps within our own party to have that kind of, that look at what it means for First Nations MPs and MPs of colour to face institutional racism, how we can ensure that practices change, so that they don't have MPs of colour and First Nations MPs are encouraged to get in parliament, those practices of institutional racism that exists across society that no one is immune from is something we all have an obligation to take steps to address.
No.
Well, the Greens are an anti-racist party. The Greens take steps to fight racism wherever it occurs.
Now, what Senator Thorpe was referring to, is highlighting the practice of institutional racism, something that we've seen, for example, Stan Grant draw attention to over the period of time.
What what is clear, I think and what we learned from the First Nations MPs in our party including Senator Thorpe, when she was in the party, is that First Nations MPs, MPs of colour, face discrimination and barriers that other MPs don't and that is something that we all have a job across parties across the parliament to learn how to do better.
And since I've been leader, we've taken steps within our own party to have that kind of, that look at what it means for First Nations MPs and MPs of colour to face institutional racism, how we can ensure that practices change, so that they don't have MPs of colour and First Nations MPs are encouraged to get in parliament, those practices of institutional racism that exists across society that no one is immune from is something we all have an obligation to take steps to address.
'The Greens are an anti-racist party': Bandt responds to Lidia Thorpe's racism claim
Adam Bandt is also asked about Lidia Thorpe's coming racism claim against the Greens. Thorpe said she would be lodging a claim against her former party with the Human Rights Commission, during an interview with Insiders on Sunday.
Related: Lidia Thorpe to lodge racism claim against Greens party with Human Rights Commission
Bandt told ABC radio RN Breakfast he was not aware of the detail of the complaint but said the party was committed to stamping out racism:
The Greens are an anti-racist party. The Greens are an anti-hate party. The Greens have taken steps to call out racism where it occurs and to stamp it out . whenever it occurs directly, but also institutional practices. It's been something we have led the charge on in this parliament. And our MPs will continue to fight and stamp out racism where it occurs.
Greens call for inquiry into PwC tax leak scandal
The Greens will also continue pursuing the PwC matter in estimates, Adam Bandt says. He wants a review of all the consulting contracts.
Related: PwC failing to name all 53 partners in tax leak scandal would amount to 'coverup', Labor senator says
The first step must be a full and independent inquiry so the Australian people can have faith, about how information confidential sensitive information designed to ensure big corporations pay their fair share of tax was used.
Adam Bandt rails against Woodside's exclusion from petroleum resource rent tax
Greens leader Adam Bandt is speaking to ABC radio RN Breakfast about the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) changes and in particular the fact that Woodside's Western Australian North-West Shelf project isn't included in it.
Treasury said that the Woodside project would be excluded from the changes announced in the last budget (deductions will be limited to 90% of revenue, with the PRRT applying on the remaining 10%) because it had pre-exisiting royalty arrangements.
Bandt is not having it.
The tax is still broken, and they're meant to be subjected to it. They should pay their fair share of tax. As I say, even after these changes, Australia only brings in a few $100 million extra from these big gas corporations that are making billions of dollars of profits. It's about a 10th of what comparable countries bring in. If we made these guess corporations pay their fair share of tax. They'd be an extra $94 billion over the decade to go to things like delivering cost-of-living relief, funding a rent freeze, getting dental into Medicare.
Good morning and welcome to our rolling news coverage. I'm Martin Farrer and I'll be bringing you a few of our top overnight yarns before my colleague Amy Remeikis takes over.
The top story today is our latest Essential poll which shows that a majority of voters support interventionist measures such as a rent freeze and migration caps to help ease pressures on the housing market. Such policies are supported by the Greens and the Coalition so the poll spells trouble for the Albanese government if they ignore popular opinion for much longer.
Anthony Albanese has urged Australians to imagine who they want to be on the morning after a referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice in the constitution. In a stirring Lowitja O'Donoghue Oration at the University of Adelaide last night, the prime minister said he believed Australians would wake up on that morning with "the strongest sense of ourselves", adding: "A great nation that has dared to become even greater, not just to ourselves but to the world." More to come on this story.
But perhaps highlighting the work that needs to be done in achieving better outcomes for Indigenous Australians, we also have a shocking exclusive story on how nearly a third of prisoners in New South Wales are Aboriginal. The proportion of Aboriginal people has reached an all-time high of 29.7%, prompting an urgent call for governments to end the "over-policing" of Indigenous communities. The NSW Aboriginal Legal Service's chief executive, Karly Warner, said the system was "stacked against Aboriginal people at every step of the way".
Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney says the government won't appoint members to the voice - and that the body would help negotiate treaties with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
At a referendum forum in Canberra, Burney said there would be "no government appointments, none" to the voice. Some critics have recently questioned whether the voice would feature members appointed by the government - despite design principles of the voice, released publicly by the referendum working group, saying members "will be chosen by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people based on the wishes of local communities".
At the forum, Burney said she had given some thought to exactly how that will work, but again reinforced prior statements that the exact details of the voice would be worked out post-referendum, following consultation with Indigenous Australians. Burney said this process would go around the country.
Asked about treaties, Burney said the Uluru statement from the heart called for a "sequential" order of voice, truth and treaty. Burney said a Makarrata commission (which the government is in process of setting up) would oversee a national process of agreement-making and treaty - but reinforced the government's belief that voice must come first.
"You've got to have someone to negotiate with. Obviously the voice would have a role in that," Burney said.
She noted that treaties would take 10 to 15 years to negotiate, saying the most contemporary example (in British Columbia) was at that upper edge.
"Quite frankly I don't want to be sitting around in 15 years time, I might not even be around in 15 years, not having a voice to parliament," Burney said.
She again stressed that the government had committed to the Uluru statement in full - which included treaty.
Skills minister, Brendan O'Connor, warns that work shortages in regional areas are persisting, with high shortages in health, catering, mechanics, and education especially.
Pointing to the latest quarterly Labour Market Update released by Jobs and Skills Australia, O'Connor said skills shortages are particularly persistent in regional areas.
Shortages of doctors, nurses medical staff and other essential services workers in regional and rural areas is a particular concern. Regional areas are facing skills shortages in a number of occupations including: general practitioners and resident medical officers, registered nurses, medical imaging professionals, early childhood (pre-primary school) teachers, cooks, motor mechanics, automotive electricians, and mining engineers.
Shortages of doctors, nurses medical staff and other essential services workers in regional and rural areas is a particular concern.
Regional areas are facing skills shortages in a number of occupations including: general practitioners and resident medical officers, registered nurses, medical imaging professionals, early childhood (pre-primary school) teachers, cooks, motor mechanics, automotive electricians, and mining engineers.
O'Connor said the government's fee-free Tafe programs had been particularly popular in regional areas, as well as noting the number of long-term unemployed had dropped in the last quarter.
The skills shortage crisis we inherited persists and the Australian government is committed to addressing this - our reform policies are more crucial than ever. Fee-free Tafe and VET across the country has seen a strong take-up in regional areas, which will help develop the pipeline of workers needed.
The skills shortage crisis we inherited persists and the Australian government is committed to addressing this - our reform policies are more crucial than ever.
Fee-free Tafe and VET across the country has seen a strong take-up in regional areas, which will help develop the pipeline of workers needed.
Australians are being invited to imagine who they want to be on the morning after a referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice in the constitution, Australian Associated Press reports.
In a stirring delivery of the Lowitja O'Donoghue Oration in Adelaide, Anthony Albanese said he believed Australians would wake up on that morning with "the strongest sense of ourselves".
A great nation that has dared to become even greater, not just to ourselves but to the world," he said.
His speech came ahead of federal parliament's return, when MPs will continue debate on the proposed wording to alter the constitution.
The legislation is expected to be voted on in the lower house this week, before it heads to the Senate.
Once it passes both houses of parliament, the wheels will be set in motion for a referendum to be held between October and November this year.
Albanese said after a successful referendum, treaty and truth-telling would be part of the nation's next phase of reconciliation with Indigenous people.
One of the things that a voice to parliament will be able to do is talk about the need for agreement making and coming together after a conflict, and part of that is truth- telling about our history," he said.
The prime minister used his speech to call out the "fog of fiction and misunderstanding" that had been peddled about the voice in the past few months.
Housing issue galvanising Australians
It was mentioned a little earlier this morning, but this Essential poll Paul Karp has written about really shows just how much of an issue housing has become:
A majority of respondents wanted to: further restrict foreign investment in property (68%), freeze rental increases (60%), cap immigration "until we have sufficient affordable housing" (59%) and allow people to access their super to buy a house (56%). One-fifth or less of respondents opposed those measures. Exactly half (50%) supported capping the number of investment properties someone can own and about a quarter (23%) opposed.
A majority of respondents wanted to: further restrict foreign investment in property (68%), freeze rental increases (60%), cap immigration "until we have sufficient affordable housing" (59%) and allow people to access their super to buy a house (56%). One-fifth or less of respondents opposed those measures.
Exactly half (50%) supported capping the number of investment properties someone can own and about a quarter (23%) opposed.
Related: Guardian Essential poll: majority of Australians support rent freezes, migration cap amid housing crisis
The impossibility of the Australian housing market is radicalising more and more people - and it doesn't seem like the government has quite caught on yet just how much it is impacting people, particularly young people.
Zoe Daniel calls for more action on tackling eating disorders
Independent Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel is continuing her push to have the parliament think more about how to tackle eating disorders - she wants the eSafety commissioner to have more powers to remove pro-eating disorder content from the web and social media and "place a positive duty of care on online platforms for their users' wellbeing".
Daniel will be holding a press conference on that later this morning.
How are Australian diplomats talking about Aukus? Daniel Hurst has the answer:
Related: Aukus 'expensive' and not 'easy to replicate', Australian officials told foreign diplomats
A very big thank you to Martin for kicking us off this morning.
You have Amy Remeikis for most of the day, taking you through the house sitting and of course, question time, as we all ride this existential crisis together.
In Canberra, you have Paul Karp, Josh Butler and Daniel Hurst, while the rest of the Guardian brains trust keeps you informed on what is happening outside of Capital Hill.
Ready?
Let's get into it.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which is part-funded by the Department of Defence, has crunched the defence budget figures.
In a report out today, titled "The big squeeze", Aspi says the urgency of the demands upon defence is not reflected in its funding, at least in the short term:
The only increase in the defence budget over the next three years is compensation for the increased cost of imported military equipment flowing from a fall in the value of the Australian dollar. Excluding this, the core funding of Defence (not including the Australian Signals Directorate) has actually been reduced at a time when unprecedented demands are being placed upon it. Between 2023-4 and 2025-6, defence funding, excluding compensation for adverse foreign exchange movements, drops from $154bn to $152.5bn.
That is based on a comparison of the total funding over those three years and what had been earmarked in the Coalition's March 2022 budget.
The Aspi report also warns that the department's ability to recruit and retain personnel is "the primary risk" to achieving the plan outlined in the defence strategic review:
With unemployment at near record lows, Defence has been unable to meet its recruitment targets, which has been further exacerbated by increasing separation rates among uniformed personnel. Defence had planned for the ADF to raise its numbers this year (2022-23) by 2,201 but instead faced a contraction in size by 1,389 uniformed personnel.