Mixed martial arts cult hero Nate Diaz will make the walk to the octagon for what could be the last time when he headlines UFC 279 against the dominant force known as Khamzat Chimaev inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Chimaev made his UFC debut in the midst of the pandemic back in July 2020. But it didn't take long for him to rise up the ranks with demolitions of John Phillips, Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert, and Li Jingliang before defeating former title contender Gilbert Burns in a thrilling war back in April.
With championship aspirations, Chimaev will get an opportunity to increase his market value by taking on the beloved Nate Diaz.
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Diaz reached cult hero status when he shocked the world by defeating Conor McGregor in March 2016. He pushed McGregor to the limit in the rematch five months later. Since then, Diaz's popularity has soared, despite finding little consistency in the win column and only fighting three times since 2016.
With this being the last fight on his UFC contract, can Diaz pull off the massive upset, or will Chimaev set himself to be the MMA promotion's next big star?
The Sporting News provides some insight on the betting lines and offers some advice heading into UFC 279's main event.
All betting lines courtesy of FanDuel
MORE: Everything you need to know about UFC 279
Don't get it misconstrued: this fight was booked for no other reason than to give Chimaev a heavy marketing push against a beloved fighter on his way out of the UFC. The fact that it's the main event is laughable in itself, as Diaz has gone 1-3 in his last four fights and 5-6 over the past decade. He's still riding high off his stunning victory over Conor McGregor back in 2016, but beating a blown-up featherweight vs. an opponent who has already shown tremendous pedigree as a welterweight and middleweight are totally different worlds.
The betting line of Diaz at +630 may sound appetizing, especially when you consider Leon Edwards' shocking come-from-behind knockout over Kamaru Usman. But one has to consider just how average Diaz truly is.
Chimaev's ascent has been meteoric since making his UFC debut in 2020. He's gone 5-0 with four finishes in that period. Perhaps more impressive is that he's won a performance of the night bonus in each of his fights, as he's shown everything from phenomenal grappling (Li Jingliang), devastating striking (Gerald Meerschaert), and tremendous resolve (Gilbert Burns). And if it wasn't for his absolute war with former title contender Gilbert Burns, we may see a way that Diaz can pull off the upset.
Instead, what's expected is nothing more than legalized manslaughter, as Chimaev possesses all the tools to make short work of Diaz. But the question comes down to where the best value is for bettors.
MORE: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz purse, salaries
Chimaev has only gone the distance once in his 11-fight MMA career, against Gilbert Burns. Diaz is not quite as durable as Burns, and the line of +700 for Chimaev to win a decision in a five-round fight may not come to fruition. It's possible, considering that Diaz has only been knocked out once back in 2013, with his other stoppage loss coming against Jorge Masvidal due to cuts.
Oddsmakers favor Chimaev to win by knockout at -135, and his impressive power suggests that's a likely scenario. However, considering that Diaz hasn't been submitted in his 15-year UFC career, that may be a preferred path of victory at +260. Diaz has a penchant for being put down but never staying down, and there could be a point in the fight where Chimaev drops Diaz, chases him to the canvas, and puts him to sleep with a choke.
It's a true dice roll when trying to figure out how to bet, but the value is in the submission, and that's where we'll settle for this fight.
UFC 279 takes place on Sept. 10. The FIGHT PASS prelims take place at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the prelims going on after at 8 p.m. ET. The main card goes live at 10 p.m. ET. Chimaev and Diaz should make their way to the octagon around 12:15 a.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.
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The main card for UFC 279 is available in the U.S. and Mexico on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost.
Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN+, the WatchESPN app, and, for the early prelims, on UFC Fight Pass.
In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on TSN, Bell, Rogers, Shaw, Eastlink and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
In the United Kingdom, the main card will be available on BT Sport, with the prelims available on UFC Fight Pass.
In Australia, the main card will be on Main Event, Kayo Sports, FOXTEL, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
In the U.S., the UFC 279 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 279 is $74.99 for current subscribers. New subscribers can pay a bundle price of $99.98 for the UFC 279 pay-per-view and an ESPN+ annual subscription, which offers savings of more than 30 percent.
$88.98, then $13.99/month
Main card
Prelims
FIGHT PASS Prelims
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