President Vladimir Putin is publicly defending what has become for his country a quagmire in Ukraine, insisting Russia has lost nothing as a result of his devastating decision to invade six months ago.
Speaking Wednesday at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where he also planned to observe ongoing military exercises with China, Putin in his prepared remarks offered a selective account of his country's strength and blasted Western sanctions imposed due to his unprovoked invasion as a threat to the world. He omitted any explicit reference to Ukraine except to laud Russia's work in helping to ensure grain exports "despite all the complicated developments taking place" there.
But in response to questions afterward, Putin offered a bold assessment of how Russia has endured the sanctions and other withering Western punishments for its invasion on Feb. 24, as well as the devastating effects of a war that has forced the Kremlin to deploy 85% of its existing combat forces to wage it.
"We have not lost anything and will not lose anything," Putin said. "In terms of what we have gained, I can say that the main gain has been the strengthening of our sovereignty."
The realities on the ground portend a much more grievous situation for the Kremlin, even as it secured new - though subtle - pledges of support from its most consequential partner in the region, China, at the summit where Putin spoke.
New Western assessments estimate tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have died in the fighting - as high as 80,000, according to Ukraine's accounting. The carnage has forced Moscow to find new recruits by broadening the acceptable ages of new enlistees and recruiting in prisons. Reports emerged this week suggesting that it has also turned to mental health facilities to find volunteers.
The U.K. and U.S. governments declassified further damning assessments this week. British military intelligence concluded on Wednesday that Russian commanders do not have enough troops to wage simultaneous operations along three separate fronts in the north, east and south, particularly when faced with their main objective of controlling territory in the east, a region known as the Donbas.
"Commanders face a dilemma of whether to deploy operational reserves to support this offensive, or to defend against continued Ukrainian advances in the south," British military intelligence noted in the assessment. Concurrent threats across 300 miles of front lines "will test Russia's ability to coordinate operational design and reallocate resources across multiple groupings of forces."
"Earlier in the war, Russia's failure to do this was one of the underlying reasons for the military's poor performance," it added.
The assessment came a day after the U.S. released intelligence indicating Russia has approached North Korea for weapons and ammunition sales in a move the Pentagon categorized as a clear admission of Moscow's battlefield shortages. The White House had previously asserted Moscow similarly reached a deal with Iran for military drones to offset losses.
"It does demonstrate and is indicative of the situation Russia finds itself in, in terms of its logistical and sustainment capabilities when it comes to Ukraine," Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday. "We assess that things are not going well on that front."
"It shows the fact that they are trying to reach out to international actors like Iran and North Korea that don't have the best record when it comes to international stability," Ryder added.
The troubles for Moscow come as Ukraine says it has launched a new counteroffensive against strategically critical Russian military hubs in the south in recent weeks around the city of Kherson, adjacent to the Crimean Peninsula, though Western governments have so far declined to classify it as a counteroffensive. And on Wednesday, reports emerged of a new, surprise Ukrainian campaign near Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, with almost immediate signs of disruption to Russian front lines and logistics routes.
Despite the dramatic blows to its military and economic infrastructure that Ukraine and its Western partners have sought to exact, Russia has somewhat endured the punitive measures. In its first six months of war, Russia earned $157 billion in fossil fuel revenues, according to new analyses released this week, even as its export volumes decreased by 18%, contributing to an increase in profits compared to last year due to dramatically high oil prices.
Subtle language from the Chinese delegation at the economic conference where Putin spoke on Wednesday also offered promising indications for the Kremlin that the Asian economic powerhouse sees value in continuing to help Russia survive - a strategy analysts believe is linked to the Chinese Communist Party's own plan for eventually seizing Taiwan.
Beijing has so far refused to provide direct military support to Moscow for its invasion despite repeated requests. However, Li Zhanshu, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, said at Wednesday's forum that Beijing is, in fact, interested in strengthening cooperation with Russia to include - as Chinese state news documented - "infrastructure, agriculture, energy, education, culture, public health and ecological protection."
Analysts say the rhetoric, though esoteric, represents a notable advancement in China's willingness to help buoy Putin.
"The Chinese are not going to directly and militarily support the Russian war in Ukraine, we know that. However, the economic cooperation is not insignificant especially under the current Western sanction on Russia," says Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank. "Cooperation on infrastructure most likely will involve Chinese financing, which is what the U.S. has been watching for. Agricultural and energy cooperation alludes to the Chinese purchase of Russian products, which means revenue creation for Putin. All three categories, and the category of ecological protection, are directly relevant to their cooperation in the Arctic."
While keeping a distance from support for the war in Ukraine, which would anger consumers in the West, Sun points to the ongoing joint military exercises known as Vostok 2022, which have included operations around territory Japan considers its own, enraging Tokyo. And she notes plans that China and Russia announced this week for President Xi Jinping - expected to enter a precedent-breaking third term as leader, strengthening his status as "president for life" - to meet with Putin next week.
"I am not surprised that China feels the need to throw Russia some favors and commitments on economic cooperation," she says. "The significance is that these are things China has refrained from committing since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
"In that sense, it is not insignificant."
Others see China's participation in the forum as symbolic, signaling a willingness to maintain its relationship with Russia while displaying to its own people and to the world that Beijing won't be cowed by Western pressure.
"The extent of the support, however, is not clearly outlined," says Maria Repnikova, a professor at Georgia State University and an expert on China-Russia relations.
"There are planned projects, but no concrete details announced. Most of the support appears to be in the economic domain, with military ties not avoided in the speeches," Repnikova says. "This suggests that China is still cautious about appearing as endorsing and aiding in Russia's military campaign in Ukraine."
Copyright 2022 U.S. News & World Report