After an extremely quiet August in the Atlantic Ocean, there are now two named tropical systems churning in the basin. On Friday night, Tropical Storm Earl spun to life east of the northern Leeward Islands. While the center of Earl may avoid crossing over land, outer portions of the system may impact several islands in the Caribbean and bring stormy conditions through early next week.
As of 5 a.m. AST, Tropical Storm Earl was located 115 miles (190 km) east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm was moving to the west-northwest at a speed of 13 mph (21 km/h) and had maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph (64 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extended 175 miles (280 km) from Earl, mainly to the north and east of its center.
Earl joins Danielle, a tropical storm located well away from any landmasses in the north-central Atlantic.
The development of Danielle and Earl occurred following a highly unusual August, in which zero named tropical systems formed. While not unprecedented, this was the first such occurrence in 25 years. In any case, this season has been substantially different than the hyperactive 2020 and 2021 seasons.
AccuWeather forecasters say Earl will remain a tropical storm through the weekend and into next week, possibly gaining a bit of strength over that time. The storm is expected to track northwestward, with the center passing slightly north of several Caribbean islands. Like with many tropical systems, however, impacts can extend well away from a storm's center, and this may be the case over the weekend in the Caribbean.
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"Though the center of Earl will remain northeast of the Caribbean Islands, rain and wind will move westward from Guadeloupe through Puerto Rico into Sunday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.
As is often the case along the edge of such tropical systems, heavy rain will be the primary threat. While this rain may come with brief breaks, torrential downpours can lead to excess runoff and localized flooding. Given the threat for localized flooding, Earl is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpactT Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean.
Additionally, gusty winds may prove disruptive in portions of the islands, especially on north-facing shorelines. In these areas, wind gusts of 40-60 mph (100-130 km/h) are possible, with an AccuWeather Local StormMaxT of 70 mph (115 km/h). Winds of this magnitude may cause some damage to trees and power lines.
By Monday and Tuesday, Earl is expected to make a sharp turn toward the north and northeast, away from the Caribbean. However, depending on just how quickly the tropical storm recurves, it may bring impacts to the island of Bermuda closer to the end of the first full week of September.
"If Earl is able to recurve quickly, it will remain on a track well south of Bermuda. But a slower curve could put the storm on an impactful track toward the island," Reppert explained.
Regardless of Earl's eventual impacts, additional tropical waves are forecast to push off the coast of Africa during the first full week of September and could make a run at becoming organized features. The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Fiona.
With the calendar now reading September, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is even closer. On average, the peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10. With warm ocean waters across much of the Atlantic, as well as in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue monitoring the waters of the basin for signs of potential new development.
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