CALIFORNIA - Sweltering summers - and higher electricity usage to cool homes - could become the norm in the Bay Area's inland communities by mid-century, according to new data that calculates temperature extremes associated with climate change.
How hot could it get?
Communities such as Livermore can expect twice as many days of 100-plus-degree Fahrenheit temperatures by the middle of the century, according to data released Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, which helps homeowners calculate property risks due to flooding, wildfires and extreme heat over 30 years, the length of a typical mortgage. From the Peninsula to the San Jose area, 100-plus-degree days are forecast to triple over the next 30 years from one day a year in 2023 to 3 days in 2053. However, just a little inland of that, and the increase in extreme heat becomes drastic, according to forecasters.
Merced would see 38 days a year of 100-plus degree temperatures by 2053 while the Fresno area is expected to face more than 50 days a year of extreme heat by mid-century. It could be worse, however. Wide swaths of inland Southern California are expected to suffer through more than 100 100-plus-degree days every year by 2053.
Bay Area residents are no strangers to increasingly common heat waves. Saturday's Accuweather forecast for Livermore was 99 degrees, 98 degrees in Pleasanton, 97 degrees in Concord, and 88 in Fremont with dry lightening expected, increasing the risk of wildfires amid the hot dry conditions.
Conservatively, average temperatures across the United States are expected to increase by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 30 years. Also, because hotter temperatures increase the rate of water evaporation, Americans are likely to see warmer, stickier air over the next three decades, according to the First Street model.
Annually, the number of "dangerous days" - a National Weather Service designation for days with temperatures of 100 degrees or greater - are found in Texas, California, Arizona and Florida. Some areas expected to see the most dramatic temperature changes are already at the greatest risk for wildfires.
Places that already have moist climates, including the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes regions, could feel the humidity more acutely, not only during the day, but into the nighttime, according to First Street
In the South, the number of triple-digit days could increase by 20 in places like Texas and Florida could see 70 days of triple-digit heat, The Washington Post analysis showed.
"We're talking about taking summer, which is already hot, and expanding it for months," Jaime González, director of the Houston Healthy Cities program for the Nature Conservancy in Texas, told The Washington Post. "That's going to cause all sorts of disruptions to everyday life."
Also, from the First Street model:
The most severe temperature changes are expected in Miami-Dade County, which could see an increase from seven days of 103-degree or hotter temperatures to 18 by 2053.
The number of counties experiencing extreme heat is expected to increase from 50 counties that are home to 8.1 million people in 2023 to 1,023 counties, affecting about 107.6 million people, according to the model. That accounts for about a quarter of the U.S. land mass.
The so-called "extreme heat belt" situated between the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains stretches from the northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana and as far north as Wisconsin. Tens of millions of people living in this region could see heat indices reach 125 degrees by mid-century.
The article More Dangerous Heat In The Bay Area's Future: How Hot Will It Get appeared first on San Francisco Patch.