On July 16, the UFC heads to Long Island. Inside the UBS Arena, Yair Rodriguez faces off against Brian Ortega.
Ortega made his pro debut in 2010 and joined the UFC in 2014. His first fight with the promotion was overturned from a win to a no-contest after testing positive for drostanolone. Since then, he has gone 7-2, beating the likes of Clay Guida, Cub Swanson, and Frankie Edgar.
In 2018, Ortega lost to Max Holloway for the UFC featherweight title. After rebounding in 2020 against "The Korean Zombie," Ortega lost to Alexander Volkanovski in September for the title.
Rodriguez made his pro debut in 2011. In 2014, he won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America Featherweight Tournament. Rodriguez is 8-2 with one no-contest with the promotion. After facing Jeremy Stephens in 2019, beating him via unanimous decision, Rodriguez didn't re-enter the ring due to injury and contract disputes with the UFC.
In November, Rodriguez returned to action, losing to Max Holloway via unanimous decision in a gritty affair.
MORE: UFC Long Island: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez date, start time, odds, schedule & card
Who will walk out of the octagon with the featherweight bragging rights? The Sporting News is here to give some insight on how to bet on this fight.
Per Vegas Insider, Ortega is the -170 favorite, while Rodriguez is the +140 underdog.
In Canada, via Sports Interaction, Ortega is the -185 favorite, while Rodriguez is the +145 underdog.
Prop bets via the FanDuel Sportsbook
MORE: MMA Schedule 2022: Date, division, location for upcoming fights
Both fighters have been known to land punches and take a lot of shots.
Ortega lands 4.15 significant strikes per minute, while Rodriguez lands 4.65. Rodriguez has a better accuracy mark (45% to 38%). How much will it take until one of these two men gives in to the pressure?
In his last five fights, Rodriguez has landed 392 shots. He has also taken 478 blows to the head and body. Max Holloway landed 230 against him. Holloway also landed 290 against Ortega, who has landed 374 shots against his opponents. He has also taken a lot of damage, with opponents landing 653 blows. Ortega absorbs 6.69 strikes per minute, while Rodriguez absorbs 4.09.
One thing to consider is the ground game of Ortega. He has landed seven takedowns in his last five fights and averages 0.87 per 15 minutes. Ortega has a takedown defense mark of 56%. Rodriguez has landed one in five fights, but does have a takedown defensive mark of 60% Ortega'a grappling is out of this world, at least compared to Rodriguez. If he can smother him down the floor, it may be a rough night for Rodriguez.
MORE: Will the UFC be returning to Canada any time soon?
Rodriguez does hold a couple of advantages. His reach extends two inches longer, and an incentive in case he wins. "El Pantera" has never fought for the UFC featherweight title, but was told by Dana White he would be next in line for the title with a win. Josh Emmett is a clear frontrunner, but an impressive win could move Rodriguez up to the top to face Alexander Volkanovski.
This is a matchup between two tough fighters in a stacked division. If Ortega grapples him to submission, Rodriguez's night will be over quickly. Rodriguez, however, can play it close to the vest and strike at any moment. Can Ortega absorb any more damage, especially with a power puncher like Rodriguez?
The 29-year-old Rodriguez appears to be the true best bet to take home the win.
UFC Long Island will take place Saturday, July 16. The event will start at 11 a.m. ET and the main card will begin at 2 p.m. ET. Ortega and Rodriguez will make their way to the octagon around 5:15 p.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.
The prelims for UFC on ABC will be available on the ESPN+ streaming service. They will also air on ESPN. The main card will air on ESPN+ and ABC.
You can pay $6.99 for a monthly subscription to ESPN+ or buy an annual subscription for $69.99.
$19.99/month
MORE: What is Conor McGregor's MMA record? Bio, age, stats, title fights for former UFC champion
Main card
Prelims