AccuWeather meteorologists expect the first Arabian Sea cyclonic storm of 2021 to form in the coming days and warn that it could bring detrimental impacts to India, which is currently engulfed in the world's largest COVID-19 outbreak.
The brewing cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea will threaten to unleash flooding rainfall and damaging winds to portions of western India through much of next week. Depending on the track of the storm, parts of Pakistan could also feel impacts.
© Provided by AccuWeather | This satellite loop shows the developing cyclonic storm off the coast of southwestern India on Friday afternoon, local time. CIRA/RAMMB |
The timing of the storm amid the COVID-19 outbreak, even if it doesn't make a direct strike, is not good news for India.
In the past month, India has reported more than 10 million new COVID-19 cases and more than 87,000 fatalities. It has pulled into the second spot globally behind the United States with a pandemic total of more than 23.7 million cases. The western state of Maharashtra has reported more than 5.2 million of those cases, which is more than any other state or province worldwide. Western Maharashtra is one area that can receive heavy rain from the developing cyclone.
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Amid the worsening health crisis, India has been regularly setting daily records of more than 400,000 cases that have also turned into global records. The current world record of 414,188 was set in the country on May 6, 2021. The record high for daily deaths in the country was 4,205 on May 11. India's death toll since the pandemic began is more than 258,000, which is third behind Brazil (more than 430,000) and the U.S. (more than 584,000), according to Johns Hopkins University.
Many of the new cases have been brought on by a variant of the virus, which is said to be highly contagious. The World Health Organization recently labeled this mutation as a variant of concern and said it poses a global health risk, CNBC reported. Mass gatherings and religious festivals that drew millions of people in recent weeks have been cited as a key factor in the spread.
So far this year, the northern Indian Ocean has been very quiet, aside from a deep depression that formed in the Andaman Sea, near Myanmar and Thailand, in early April.
However, an area of low pressure that formed across the Lakshadweep area off the coast of southwestern India during the middle of the week developed into a tropical depression on Friday, according to India's Meteorological Department.
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"Conditions are favorable for tropical development, and this low should become a cyclonic storm over the weekend," said Accu-Weather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. "Once named, it will be called Tauktae."
The budding cyclone can bring an area of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain to these areas leading to the threat for flooding, mudslides and washed-out roads. An AccuWeather Local StormMaxT of 450 mm (18 inches) is possible in the heaviest and most persistent rain bands.
"There is still a range of potential tracks that the storm could take early next week," said Nicholls. "The potential cyclone could turn more to the west and move into southern Pakistan, or it can remain farther to the east and track into Gujarat in northwestern India."
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With strengthening into a very severe cyclonic storm possible before landfall (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), a landfall in northwestern India or Pakistan could lead to significant impacts including damaging wind, flash flooding and an inundating coastal storm surge.
Regardless of the track, the budding cyclone will stir up rough surf along the coasts of western India and Pakistan as the winds around the storm increase.
The season for tropical activity has no bounds in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, according to Nicholls, but it does have two peaks.
"The first of the two peaks in the calendar year is during the pre-monsoon period of April to June, and the second is after the monsoon, from September to December," Nicholls explained.
As May progress, the number of tropical systems across the globe, statistically, is likely to increase.
Earlier this week, Tropical Storm Andres formed in the East Pacific Ocean basin. This formation came prior to the official start of the season and also put Andres in the record books as it became the earliest named preseason storm in the basin.
Residents should continue to monitor the situation and heed local warnings. With the ongoing COVID-19 surge across the country, it may take extra time to prepare for the storm and make any needed precautions.
If the cyclone does track to the north and into northwestern India, moisture from the potential cyclone could bring a dose of heavy rain across western Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and eastern Pakistan during the middle and end of next week.
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