A positive COVID-19 test didn't just force Duke to remove itself from the ACC tournament on Thursday morning.
It also almost certainly extinguishes the Blue Devils' hopes of preserving its streak of 24 straight NCAA tournament appearances. Duke athletic director Kevin White said in a statement afterward that the result "will end our 2020-21 season."
At 13-11 overall, Duke was lurking on the outskirts of the bubble conversation but likely had not done enough to be in the field of 68. The Blue Devils achieved little of note in non-league play and then went 9-9 in an ACC loaded with good teams but lacking its usual array of great ones.
While Duke boasts a marquee win over Virginia and victories over potential NCAA tournament teams Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Syracuse, the Blue Devils are still a pedestrian 7-9 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games. They also have Quadrant 3 losses to Miami and Notre Dame dragging them down.
Having throttled overmatched Boston College on Tuesday night and avenged two prior losses to Louisville on Wednesday, Duke had given itself a chance to add to its résumé. The Blue Devils were to face Florida State on Thursday night in a high-stakes ACC quarterfinal. A victory would have earned the Blue Devils another chance to snare a Quadrant 1 victory in the ACC semifinals - either against Virginia Tech or rival North Carolina.
Now, because of an ill-timed COVID-19 case, that's no longer possible. All Duke can do is wonder what might have been. Five victories in five days would have been the only way Duke could have assured itself of an NCAA tournament bid, but the Blue Devils could have made things very interesting with an ACC title game appearance.
© Provided by Yahoo! SportsDuke coach Mike Krzyzewski reacts following a play during the ACC men's basketball tournament on March 10, 2021. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
The demise of Duke's bid to save its season is one of a handful of intriguing championship week storylines. Here's a look at our projection of the bubble three days before Selection Sunday:
LAST FOUR BYES
VCU (19-6, 10-4 A-10, NET: 35, KenPom: 43)
Q1 record: 2-4
Q2 record: 7-0
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2 (Rhode Island, George Mason)
Next game: vs. St. Bonaventure, Sunday
The Atlantic 10 title game doesn't appear must-win for either VCU or St. Bonaventure. Both may now be playing to improve their NCAA tournament seeding, not simply to make the field. Of the two there's probably slightly more pressure on the Rams to win. While their 9-4 record in the top two quadrants is unassailable and includes non-league wins over Memphis and Utah State, they do have a dismal home loss to George Mason weighing down their profile.
MARYLAND (15-12, 9-11 Big Ten, NET: 34, KenPom: 29)
The winner of Thursday's opening-round Big Ten tournament game between Maryland and Michigan State can sleep well ahead of Selection Sunday. The loser will likely avoid the First Four too, unless other bubble teams start stacking wins or bid thieves emerge. The profiles of Maryland and Michigan State are similar overall. Michigan State just has higher-end wins - Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State - and more Quadrant 1 and 2 victories.
LOUISVILLE (13-7, 8-5 ACC, NET: 52, KenPom: 51)
Louisville played like it was safely in the NCAA tournament field Wednesday during a listless loss to Duke. Now the Cardinals get to find out if they were right. A 5-1 record against fellow bubble teams Duke, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall and Western Kentucky will help Louisville, but those are the best teams the Cardinals beat. Is that enough? Probably. But is Louisville in jeopardy of sliding to the First Four? Yes.
WICHITA STATE (15-4, 11-2 American, NET: 64, KenPom: 71)
For a team that won the American, Wichita State's résumé is pretty thin. In non-league play, the Shockers only notched one notable win, a road victory at fellow bubble team Ole Miss. Wichita State also only played three games against its league's upper-echelon teams, splitting two matchups with Houston, dropping a lone meeting with Memphis and missing SMU altogether. The conference tournament is Wichita State's last chance to add to its resume. Avoiding a bad loss is a must. Reaching the title game would be a big boost.
LAST FOUR IN
DRAKE (25-4, 15-3 Valley, NET: 47, KenPom: 56)
Of all the teams on the bubble, Drake may be the toughest for the committee to evaluate. All three of Drake's Quadrant 1 opportunities this season came against a formidable Loyola (Chicago) team. The Bulldogs lost twice by double figures and won once by a single point in overtime. The next best team Drake beat is 92nd in the NCAA's NET rankings, however, three of the Bulldogs' four losses came without leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill, who could return from injury for the NCAA tournament.
BOISE STATE (18-7, 14-6 MWC, NET: 44, KenPom: 57)
Of the Mountain West's three bubble teams, Boise State once appeared to be the safest. The Broncos had the best non-conference win, an upset of BYU in Provo in early December. Boise State had also won three of four head-to-head against Utah State and Colorado State. The Broncos' undoing could be finishing the regular season with a damaging Quadrant 4 home loss to Fresno State. Now there's pressure on them to atone by at least beating Nevada on Thursday - and maybe to win a potential Mountain West semifinal against San Diego State as well.
COLORADO STATE (17-5, 14-4 MWC, NET: 50, KenPom: 61)
Thanks in part to a bizarre scheduling decision by the Mountain West to have Colorado State play four games in seven days, the Rams closed the regular season with an 85-82 road loss at Nevada. That's not a killer necessarily, but it doesn't help a team whose margin for error is razor thin. Colorado State's entire resume is splitting with San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State and suffering no Quadrant 3 or 4 losses. The Rams probably need a couple wins in Las Vegas to solidify a NCAA tournament spot.
SYRACUSE (16-8, 9-7 ACC, NET: 49, KenPom: 44)
At the end of a college basketball season that has mostly defied prediction, it's comforting to see that one outcome never changes. As usual, Syracuse finds itself right on the bubble. An 89-68 rout of NC State was a win the Orange had to have. Now they get a crack at a Virginia team that shredded their trademark zone in late January. A Syracuse victory would address the glaring weak spot in the Orange's profile - a 1-6 record in Quadrant 1 games. Before late-season wins over North Carolina and Clemson, Virginia Tech was the lone NCAA tournament contender the Orange had beaten.
FIRST FOUR OUT
OLE MISS (15-10, 10-8 SEC, NET: 54, KenPom: 52)
Q1 record: 3-4
Q2 record: 5-4
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2 (Vanderbilt, Georgia)
Next game: vs. South Carolina, Thursday
Once 3-6 in the SEC and seemingly going nowhere, Ole Miss has played itself onto the bubble by winning seven of its past nine games. The Rebels edged Tennessee and Auburn during that hot streak and swept a pair from Missouri. Where that leaves Ole Miss is within striking distance of an at-large bid. The SEC tournament offers plenty of chances for resume-boosting wins, as long as the Rebels don't dump their opener against South Carolina on Thursday.
XAVIER (13-8, 6-7 Big East, NET: 58, KenPom: 62)
Xavier had already used whatever margin for error it had with back-to-back losses to Marquette and Georgetown to end the regular season. As a result, blowing a 14-point lead against Butler in the first round of the Big East tournament could be a death blow for the Musketeers. The second-half collapse adds a Quad 3 loss to an already shaky resume. How on earth did Xavier not face Villanova, split with Creighton and still lose 8 of 14 games against Big East foes?
SAINT LOUIS (14-6, 6-4 A-10, NET: 45, KenPom: 49)
For Saint Louis to make a strong case for an NCAA bid, it needs the selection committee to consider the context of its two worst losses. The COVID-stricken Billikens hadn't played in a month and had scarcely practiced when they lost at home against Dayton and then on the road at lowly La Salle. Remove those losses, and the rest of Saint Louis' résumé is NCAA tournament-caliber. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure are the two highlights.
UTAH STATE (18-7, 15-4 ACC, NET: 48, KenPom: 47)
Q1 record: 2-4
Q2 record: 1-1
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2 (UNLV, South Dakota State)
Next game: vs. UNLV, Thursday
Why is Utah State in NCAA tournament contention despite a 1-3 record against fellow Mountain West bubble teams Boise State and Colorado State? Or a pair of bad losses to UNLV and South Dakota State? Simple. Nobody else besides the Aggies swept a pair of games from league champ San Diego State. To get to the right side of the cutline, Utah State probably has to at least reach the Mountain West title game. That could mean going through Colorado State in a Friday semifinal.
NEXT FOUR OUT
DUKE (13-11, 9-9 ACC, NET: 51, KenPom: 34)
Q1 record: 2-5
Q2 record: 5-4
Q3 and Q4 losses: 2 (Miami, Notre Dame)
Next game: vs. Florida State, Thursday
An ill-timed positive COVID test likely ends Duke's hopes of preserving its streak of 24 NCAA tournament appearances. The Blue Devils probably needed to reach the ACC title game to have realistic hope. Duke achieved little of note in non-league play and then went 9-9 in an ACC loaded with good teams but lacking its usual array of great ones. While Duke boasts a marquee win over Virginia and victories over potential NCAA tournament teams Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Syracuse, the Blue Devils are still a pedestrian 7-9 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games. They also have Quadrant 3 losses to Miami and Notre Dame dragging them down.
SETON HALL (13-12, 10-9 Big East, NET: 59, KenPom: 51)
Four straight losses to close the regular season have left Seton Hall's NCAA tournament hopes on life support. Not only did the Pirates finish 1-5 against the Big East's top tier of Villanova, Creighton and UConn, they also took some damaging losses against the likes of Butler and Rhode Island. Seton Hall's Big East quarterfinal against St. John's is must-win for both teams. The Pirates would also have to take down Villanova the next day. Could they lose in the Big East title game in that scenario and sneak in? Perhaps, but it's a long shot.
SMU (11-4, 7-4 American, NET: 56, KenPom: 53)
The last time SMU played a basketball game, the Mustangs beat East Carolina the day after the Super Bowl. They'll return from a month-long COVID hiatus on Friday with no time to regain their rhythm and no margin for error. A minimum of two conference tournament victories is a must for an SMU team lacking notable wins. Realistically, the Mustangs may need the league's automatic bid since Houston - the American's lone marquee team this season - is on the opposite side of the bracket.
MEMPHIS (15-7, 11-4 American, NET: 53, KenPom: 40)
Houston's tie-breaking buzzer beater last Sunday may have sealed Memphis' fate entering the American Athletic Conference tournament. Either the Tigers secure the league's autobid, or Penny Hardaway's first NCAA tournament bid as a coach will likely have to wait another year. The good news for Memphis is that's a very realistic goal. The Tigers have already beaten Wichita State and SMU this season and came ever-so-close to taking Houston to overtime on the Cougars' home floor.
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