© Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via APCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020.
OTTAWA - The economy-opening potential of "vaccine passports" is quickly attracting a global following - but count Prime Minister Justin Trudeau among the hesitant.
After a year of sheltering at home, a growing number of Canadians are getting Covid-19 vaccines. Businesses and lawmakers are anxious to fire up economies, just not for everyone.
Some countries, like Israel, Estonia and Denmark, believe digital proof-of-vaccine certification is key to creating confidence in people that it's safe to fly, shop and even squeeze into concerts.
President Joe Biden issued an executive order in January instructing U.S. officials to study the feasibility of adding Covid-19 vaccination records to international immunization cards, and have them digitized.
The momentum building for Covid-19 vaccine credentials is accompanied by fears that any passport - basically an all-access pass - would compromise privacy, equity and human rights.
"Is this the new world that we're going to live in forever?" asks Françoise Baylis, a bioethics expert who has been been consulted on the issue by Canadian and global authorities. "Governments have an obligation not only to decide what they will allow, but also what they will not allow."
Trudeau has yet to embrace the idea and is taking his time, insiders say.
He shot down the vaccine passport idea during a January interview with Reuters, arguing it was "fraught with challenges." He said he was worried about creating "knock-on, undesirable effects" in communities since there are many reasons why someone might not get a shot.
Trudeau recently showed more receptiveness, saying he had heard "pros and cons." Asked if he had a change of heart, he noted how experts' recommendations have evolved on Covid matters throughout the pandemic.
At home, Trudeau's trepidation stands in contrast to the governments in Canada's two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec, which are charging ahead.
The provinces, which have jurisdiction over front-line health services, have both signaled they're working on certification systems that could enable them to reopen parts of their economies for people who have been vaccinated.
With Canada immersed in a policy discussion around vaccine passports on multiple levels, here are some of the factors being debated and discussed:
1. What would a vaccine passport signify, anyway?
Given all the unknowns about Covid-19, its variants and the vaccines, there's skepticism about just how effective a proof-of-vaccination certification would be.
This uncertainty underpins Trudeau's hesitancy on whether Canada should adopt vaccine passports, a senior government source told POLITICO.
"Some provinces are exploring options for certification right now, which is fine," said the source, who then added some angles that should be considered.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the science is unclear on immunity and the risks of transmission for those who have been vaccinated.
The person also underlined the ethical and civil liberties concerns, which they added have led to talk of possible court challenges. Some have warned of potential legal conflicts if, for example, employers demand vaccine certifications.
"That's why at this stage we say our decisions will be based on science," the source said.
Patty Hajdu, Trudeau's health minister, told CBC's Rosemary Barton Live that vaccine certification is a "very live" international issue. She said it's been on the agenda of meetings with her G-7 counterparts.
"It's a dynamic space," Hajdu said in an interview, which aired Sunday. "The intent is to co-ordinate, yes, because you can imagine the confusion in international travel if there's different certifications that are required."
Health Canada says the science shows approved Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective at preventing illness. It's still unknown, however, whether those who get their shots can still spread the virus or how long the vaccines will last.
"The Government of Canada is aware that some jurisdictions are considering granting privileges to vaccinated people through a certification process," Maryse Durette, a Health Canada spokesperson, wrote in an email. "Any similar consideration in the Canadian context would have to be based on reliable scientific evidence."
Canada's position resembles the stance of the World Health Organization, which in a January statement advised against introducing proof-of-vaccination requirements for international travel as a condition for entry because "there are still critical unknowns regarding the efficacy of vaccination in reducing transmission and limited availability of vaccines."
Still, the WHO has launched an effort to set international standards through its "Smart Vaccination Certificate" working group.
And even if it has yet to warm up to the idea, the Canadian government has also been studying the issue.
Iain Stewart, the head of the Public Health Agency of Canada, told a parliamentary committee last month that officials were "very much looking" at the idea of some kind of vaccination certification documentation.
"As people are immunized, it will be increasingly needed," Stewart said when asked about immunity passports.
2. Who would get left out?
Talk of passports is creating worries of giving privileges to the vaccinated - in both domestic and international contexts.
Some people will refuse to get a Covid-19 vaccine and others will be unable to get a shot because of health conditions, like allergies.
Baylis, a Dalhousie University professor, said that seeking freedom of movement for some people constrains it for others. She added that there's not enough attention on those who may be harmed by vaccine credentials.
Internationally, she said certification is being proposed at a time when the vast majority of people in the world lack access to a vaccine.
"So, you are now going to disenfranchise how much of the population?" Baylis said. "We're nearly 8 billion people. We know that at the rate we're able to produce and roll out the vaccine we're looking at several years."
Perrin Beatty, the head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, supports the idea of a vaccine passport as a tool to enable the economy to open up more rapidly.
But he said a public discussion is needed to ensure any eventual approach is designed so that people who cannot take the vaccine are not deprived of a right they would otherwise have.
Beatty said he's concerned there has been little public debate about them in Canada.
"Other countries are moving ahead and we'd be foolish to simply sit on the sidelines and wait for others to develop standards," he said. "It's an issue that we would have to work through. You don't want a situation where if somebody, for medical reasons, isn't able to be vaccinated that they're deprived of some right that otherwise they would have."
3. How do we deal with privacy concerns. and do people care?
Privacy fears around vaccine passports are centered on the risk of unauthorized third-party access to an individual's health data.
Ann Cavoukian, the former privacy commissioner of Ontario, said in an interview that once health information gets into the hands of third parties you never know where it will end up.
"Whenever you have a crisis, a terrorist incident, a pandemic, anything, privacy measures are put aside," said Cavoukian, who doesn't like the idea of digital health passes. "But once the crisis ends often these privacy-invasion practices continue."
Cavoukian is assisting the Good Health Pass Collaborative, which is creating a blueprint for digital Covid credential systems. She said the collaborative, which includes governments and experts from the travel, health and tech sectors, will ensure personal health information will remain under the individual's control.
"We've got to preserve our privacy, it forms the foundation of our freedom and it's essential we preserve it now and well into the future," she said. "The direction this stuff is going in challenges that."
Canada's federal privacy watchdog has yet to be consulted on issues related to a vaccine passport. Vito Pilieci, a spokesperson for Commissioner Daniel Therrien, said the office would want to see evidence that Covid-19 vaccines protect not only the person who has been vaccinated but also other individuals with whom they come into contact.
"This would be key to assessing the necessity of a vaccine passport, or more broadly, proof of vaccination as a condition of service or employment," he said.
4. How would it work across jurisdictions - here at home, around the world?
An internationally accepted proof-of-vaccine certificate may be unavoidable as the world looks to reopen country-to-country travel.
And people who have deferred vacations and family reunions may be willing to do whatever it takes to go abroad.
But in Canada, it is any domestic form of a vaccine passport that is likely to cause the most concern.
Those who don't get inoculated for medical or other reasons could one day find themselves restricted from restaurants, sporting events or concerts, while their vaccinated peers get an all-access pass.
Further complicating Canada's approach is the fact that its 10 provinces are responsible for administering health-care services, the Covid-19 vaccination delivery and, most likely, any vaccine certification plans.
For this reason, Trudeau may not have much say in how the country moves forward.
Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott warned in December that people who don't get vaccinated may be restricted from some activities, including travel and going to theaters.
Asked in March for an update on potential restrictions, an Ontario health department spokesperson declined to get into details.
"The COVID-19 vaccine will not be mandated for Ontarians but we do strongly suggest that people embrace the opportunity," Lindsay Davidson wrote in an email.
Quebec Health Minister Christian Dubé said recently that his province planned a vaccine passport because companies wanted to open their doors first to those who have been inoculated.
5. What are the other options?
Airlines, including through the International Air Transport Association, have been testing digital certification. Later this month, the European Commission will introduce a proposal on a digital "green pass" for travel.
Beatty said some form of vaccine certification is very likely at the international level - and he predicts people will also want some form of credential in Canada.
"I see it as a tool domestically that would enable us to open up more rapidly and to allow people to get back to more normal lives, sooner," he said.
Beatty suggests modeling a solution after the optional trusted traveler program known as NEXUS, which speeds up the process for Canadians and Americans who cross the shared border. To qualify for a NEXUS card, people must be willing to provide iris scans and fingerprints.
Beatty said it would give people confidence when they're in a crowd that the people around them have been vaccinated.
The Canada-U.S. border crossings, shuttered to non-essential travel for nearly a year, have potential to be an early adopter of vaccine certification.
But last month, Public Safety Minister Bill Blair said vaccine certification still wasn't good enough to enter Canada. "At the present time, the answer to that question is no," Blair said at a press conference when asked about it.
He added that people looking to cross into the country still have to produce a negative Covid test taken within 72 hours.
"We, of course, rely entirely on the evidence and the advice of the Public Health Agency of Canada," he said. "There is, unfortunately, insufficient data to support the determination of relying solely on a previous vaccination at this time."