UFC 257 predictions, prop bets, odds: Finding the best values for a loaded fight card on Fight Island

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UFC 257 is not only the first UFC pay-per-view of 2021, but it will likely be one of the biggest events of the year when the calendar draws to a close. Any event with Conor McGregor in the main event is going to draw extra attention, and his rematch with Dustin Poirier is no different. With more attention comes more action at the betting window.

McGregor heads into the fight with Poirier as a -310 favorite to beat Poirier (+250). The fight stands out as even more important with the retirement of lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Whoever emerges victorious between McGregor and Poirier would seem to have the inside track on a title fight, whether for the vacant championship or against Nurmagomedov should the UFC be able to convince him to return for one more fight. The same goes for the winner of the lightweight co-main event between Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler.

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It's a huge night of fights from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, and an event that will begin to set the stage for an interesting 155-pound title chase over the remainder of 2021. Let's take a closer look at the main fight card and try to find three of the best prop bets available at William Hill Sportsbook.

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier

Pick: Total rounds -- Over 1.5 (-150) -- McGregor is an explosive finisher and he didn't have much trouble finishing Poirier in the first round of their previous meeting. To lean on that ignores several realities. Poirier isn't going to rush in like Jose Aldo, he isn't on a run of several knockouts like Donald Cerrone and he's a much better and more complete fighter at 155 pounds than he was at 145. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that McGregor eats up Poirier in a matter of minutes, but the more mature version of Poirier should be taking the kind of patient and cautious approach that makes this a good value bet, especially with the playbook on McGregor saying that dragging him into the second half of the fight is your best chance to score the victory.

Ottman Azaitar vs. Matt Frevola

Pick: Azaitar in Round 1 (+250) -- Azaitar has finished 10 of his 13 career fights in the first round, including his two fights in the UFC Octagon. Were that not an attractive enough fight to bet on Azaitar to win in the first round, Frevola lost his UFC debut via first-round stoppage. That loss was three years ago, but it shows that Frevola can be stopped and the fighters he has faced since aren't as dangerous to score early finishes as Azaitar. Look for Azaitar to bomb out Frevola early and keep his run going. If you don't want to worry about battling the clock, the less exciting +130 line for a general KO/TKO/DQ by Azaitar may be a better fit.

Amanda Ribas vs. Marina Rodriguez

Pick: Amanda Ribas via decision (+120) -- If you want to live a bit more of an exciting life for 15 minutes on Saturday, throwing some money on Ribas to score a stoppage isn't unreasonable. Personally, I want to place bets that have the highest chance of making money. Nearly 70% of women's strawweight fights go to decision. Ribas is a reasonably heavy favorite for a reason, but Rodriguez has never been stopped. Getting +120 for what seems like far and away the most sensible outcome is still a good value here without just throwing up a Hail Mary and hoping for the best.

Who will win McGregor vs. Poirier 2, and how will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 257, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $22,000 on MMA in the past 23 months, and find out.